Part 2 of "The Seahawks: How Did We Get Here?"

TRADES

John Schneider has never been one to stay away from big trades.

That doesn't mean that he has been successful in those kind of endeavors.

In fact, going through these may be downright disheartening for some fans.

So there's the heads-up, and here we go into the big trades.

These are the trades that involved at least a 3rd round pick in terms of draft capital.

PERCY HARVIN

Traded Away:
2013 1st Round Pick, #25 - (CB Xavier Rhodes)
2013 7th Round Pick, #214 - (G Travis Bond)
2014 3rd Round Pick, #96 - (RB Jerick McKinnon)

Received:
WR Percy Harvin

JIMMY GRAHAM

Traded Away:
2015 1st Round Pick, #31 - (LB, Stephone Anthony)
OC Max Unger

Received:
2015 4th Round Pick, #112 - (Traded)
TE Jimmy Graham

SHELDON RICHARDSON

Traded Away:
2018 2nd Round Pick, #49 - (Traded)
2018 7th Round Pick, #235 - (Traded)
WR Jermaine Kearse

Received:
2018 7th Round Pick, #226 - (Traded)
DT Sheldon Richardson

DUANE BROWN

Traded Away:
2018 3rd Round Pick, #80 - (OT Martinas Rankin)
2019 2nd Round Pick, #54 - (CB Lonnie Johnson)

Received:
2018 5th Round Pick, #141 - (LB Shaquem Griffin)
LT Duane Brown

FRANK CLARK

Traded Away:
2019 3rd Round Pick, #84 - (DT Khalen Saunders)
DE Frank Clark

Received:
2019 1st Round Pick, #29 - (DL LJ Collier)
2019 3rd Round Pick, #92 - (Traded)
2020 2nd Round Pick, #64 - (Traded)

JADEVEON CLOWNEY

Traded Away:
2020 3rd Round Pick, #91 - (Traded)
LB Barkevious Mingo
LB Jake Martin

Received:
DE Jadeveon Clowney

JAMAL ADAMS

Traded Away:
2021 1st Round Pick, #23 - (Traded)
2021 3rd Round Pick, #86 - (Traded)
2022 1st Round Pick

Received:
2022 4th Round Pick
SS Jamal Adams

RUSSELL WILSON

Traded Away:
2022 4th Round Pick
QB Russell Wilson

Received:
2022 1st Round Pick
2022 2nd Round Pick
2022 5th Round Pick
2023 1st Round Pick
2023 2nd Round Pick
QB Drew Lock
TE Noah Fant
DT Shelby Harris

Taken as a whole, it seems like John doesn't excel at the "big move". None of the moves listed above escape criticism, except perhaps the Duane Brown and/or Frank Clark trades, and even Frank's could be criticized for what they did with what they got. We don't know for sure how the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade will ultimately look, except that it is the ONE instance where, perhaps, the criticism may need to be leveled at someone else.

Seems Russ strangled Seattle into this deal. Amazing they got what they did with no other options. https://t.co/13V3dKsd4o

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) March 9, 2022

If I were to point out some basic flaws in the "big trade" approach, it would appear that each big trade (with the exception of Duane Brown and possibly Frank Clark) was a poor decision from a team-building or team philosophy standpoint.

In Percy Harvin, Pete Carroll wanted a game-breaking offensive weapon with explosive abilities and touchdown potential with every touch. He got an injury-prone, locker-room disaster who prevented the team from re-signing a valuable WR in Golden Tate.

In Jimmy Graham, Pete wanted a massive target who could function as the team's WR1 and provided a consistent red-zone threat. He got a soft tight end who couldn't (or wouldn't) block, either in-line or split out wide, that negatively impacted the run game, and spent money at a non-premium position for a player who didn't bring the physicality that the team's philosophy demanded.

In Sheldon Richardson, Pete wanted a potential game-wreaker on the defensive line who had size, talent, and nastiness. He got a streaky, low-work ethic, non-scheme fit.

In Jamal Adams, Pete wanted a physical presence on the back end with a leader's mentality, speed, hit power, and the ability to play all phases of the game, including run defense, pass rush, and coverage. He got a player who plays an unsustainable style, hasn't stayed on the field, who is a positionless hybrid player playing an important and defined role with clear rules in the PC system, and whose primary weakness is supposed to be the position's primary strength.

What About Russ?

The Russell Wilson trade is of an entirely different variety, and shouldn't be viewed in entirely the same light as these "big trades". This is a BLOCKBUSTER trade. Receiving two firsts and two seconds is a good starting place for a Pro Bowl-caliber QB, but seems low. As I mentioned earlier, that may or may not actually be John Schneider's fault at all, but may entirely be due to Russell's contract and choices. If we assume that JS isn't entirely at fault for the lower draft capital, we can at least look at the players received in the package.

First, the Seahawks needed a QB. Period. Drew Lock is a QB. End of that discussion. He will be the backup or one-year bridge QB. Second, Shelby Harris is an excellent DT who has had "Elite" grades twice in the past four years, per PFF, and has never had a below-average year. That's something every team needs, and Pete's teams can definitely use. My struggle is with Noah Fant. He's a physically enticing prospect with athletic ability for days... but has received terrible PFF grades as a blocker every year in the league, and that's easy to see on film. Pete has proven time and time again that he does NOT need a star tight end, and that having one actually harms the system, possibly distracting from the main goals of his philosophy. Great blocking tight ends with soft hands have functioned best in his systems: think Zach Miller from the Seahawks' 2011-2014 squads, or even the healthy version of Will Dissly from recent years.

I would much rather have added a top young WR like Jerry Jeudy to this deal, especially since the Seahawks have reportedly been looking for another young wide receiver to round out their WR corps. However, realistically, I would have rather had additional draft picks. It is not too much to say that Wilson should have commanded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds alongside Lock and Harris, and that's still probably underselling it. If there's anything I could say to Pete Carroll and John Schneider as we continue along this journey, it would be: "Don't compromise your philosophy.". In this case, I mean very clearly: stop pursuing primarily pass-catching tight ends. They are not as important to your system as men who get physical and block well, even if they aren't quite as fast or impressive after the catch.

Moderate Trades

Schneider, however, has proven to be much more masterful when it comes to the moderate trade.

Check this out: these are players who became Seahawks for later draft picks (4th-7th rounds) or other compensation.

Marshawn Lynch
Kellen Winslow
Sealver Siliga
D'Anthony Smith
Terrelle Pryor
Marcus Burley
Mohammed Seisay
Kelcie McCray
Dewey McDonald
DJ Alexander
Matt Tobin
Justin Coleman
Isaiah Battle
Marcus Johnson
Brett Hundley
Shalom Luani
Darrell Daniels
Jacob Hollister
Parry Nickerson
Quandre Diggs
Quinton Dunbar
Carlos Dunlap
Gabe Jackson
John Reid
Sidney Jones

Since most of these trades involved minimal trade compensation, and some ended up costing nothing at all (due to conditional picks being sent), the misses don't matter nearly as much, but the hits stick out like a sore thumb (in a good way, of course).

Marshawn is a Seattle legend. Diggs is a Pro Bowler who many fans want back. Dunlap is a fantastic defensive end, though he is late in his career at this point. Jackson is a starting-caliber NFL guard. Jones is a starting-quality NFL cornerback who may be back with the Seahawks at some point as well. Even guys like Coleman and Hollister were starters at their positions who had some level of success with the Seahawks for a minimal price.

Will PCJS bring enough to this team to make it a contender in a short period of time?

Starting an off-season by saying goodbye to your star QB is definitely one way to make a splash; now Seahawks fans hope that there are more major moves in the making, because this team is hard to envision as being better or more successful minus Houdini at quarterback.

A Brief Goodbye

For now, we thank Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner (who was informed of his release from the team earlier today) for their contributions to the Seahawks and the city of Seattle.

Thank you, Russ, for inspiring a love of football in many young fans, for being the face of our state's success, and for bringing the city of Seattle its first championship.

Thank you, Bobby, for being a true class act, on and off the field. Thank you for being a person of character, for your contributions to this city, and for leading well.

Good luck to you both, and God bless.

Part 1 of "The Seahawks: How Did We Get Here?"

THE DRAFT

Through the 2010, 2011, and 2012 draft classes, the Seahawks built an empire.

Many of these players were starters for years, and many made the pro bowl.

At least half of these can be classified as successes, and the "bust rate" is well under 50%.

Bolded players were elected to a Pro Bowl while with the Seahawks.

2010

1 - Russell Okung

1 - Earl Thomas

2 - Golden Tate

4 - Walter Thurmond

4 - EJ Wilson

5 - Kam Chancellor

6 - Anthony McCoy

7 - Dexter Davis

7 - Jameson Konz

2011

1 - James Carpenter

3 - John Moffitt

4 - KJ Wright

4 - Kris Durham

5 - Richard Sherman

5 - Mark LeGree

6 - Byron Maxwell

7 - Lazarius Levingston

7 - Malcolm Smith

2012

1 - Bruce Irvin

2 - Bobby Wagner

3 - Russell Wilson

4 - Robert Turbin

4 - Jaye Howard

5 - Korey Toomer

6 - Jeremy Lane

6 - Winston Guy

7 - JR Sweezy

7 - Greg Scruggs

That doesn't include undrafted players who were signed to the team during this time, like Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette, etc.

Even players who didn't make the Pro Bowl were impactful: Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond, James Carpenter, Malcolm Smith, Bruce Irvin, Robert Turbin, Jeremy Lane, JR Sweezy, and many more drafted and undrafted players during this time frame started games and had successful stints with the Hawks.

One notable caveat: the Seahawks had earlier picks during these years, as well as multiple 1sts.

Then something changed.

From 2013-2018, the Seahawks' empire stagnated.

2013

2 - Christine Michael

3 - Jordan Hill

4 - Chris Harper

5 - Jesse Williams

5 - Tharold Simon

5 - Luke Willson

6 - Spencer Ware

7 - Ryan Seymour

7 - Ty Powell

7 - Jared Smith

7 - Michael Bowie

2014

2 - Paul Richardson

2 - Justin Britt

4 - Cassius Marsh

4 - Kevin Norwood

4 - Kevin Pierre-Louis

5 - Jimmy Staten

6 - Garrett Scott

6 - Eric Pinkins

7 - Kiero Small

2015

2 - Frank Clark

3 - Tyler Lockett

4 - Terry Poole

4 - Mark Glowinski

5 - Tye Smith

6 - Obum Gwacham

6 - Kristjan Sokoli

7 - Ryan Murphy

2016

1 - Germain Ifedi

2 - Jarran Reed

3 - CJ Prosise

3 - Nick Vannett

3 - Rees Odhiambo

5 - Quinton Jefferson

5 - Alex Collins

6 - Joey Hunt

7 - Kenny Lawler

7 - Zac Brooks

2017

2 - Malik McDowell

2 - Ethan Pocic

3 - Shaquill Griffin

3 - Lano Hill

3 - Nazair Jones

3 - Amara Darboh

4 - Tedric Thompson

6 - Michael Tyson

6 - Justin Senior

7 - David Moore

7 - Chris Carson

2018

1 - Rashaad Penny

3 - Rasheem Green

4 - Will Dissly

5 - Shaquem Griffin

5 - Tre Flowers

5 - Michael Dickson

5 - Jamarco Jones

6 - Jacob Martin

7 - Alex McGough

This is the make or break year for the 2018 Seahawks draft. Unlikely to be great, but Rasheem Green and Will Dissly could do it if they have great years.

Rashaad Penny can't really be a good pick at this point. Tre Flowers could redeem himself. Dickson great. Jamarco solid.

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) September 13, 2021

It's hard to even read through some of these years.

The 2013 draft produced Willson as a consistent contributor... and that's about it.

The 2014 draft had some role players and names that stuck around for a while, the best of which may be Justin Britt (a league-average or slightly-above-average Center), but did not produce any Pro Bowlers for the Seahawks (does Pro Bowl alternate count?).

2015 is probably the best of the rest since Frank Clark and Tyler Lockett have had tangible achievements and are still producing in the league, but Clark did not get a second contract with the Seahawks and never reached a Pro Bowl with them either. Glowinski still plays in the league.

2016 was the Ifedi year: a failed experiment at RG/RT. Jarran Reed was a success at DT, but once again, barely earned a year past his rookie contract with the team. Though other role players have played (and continue to play) parts with different iterations of the Hawks (Vannett/Jefferson/Collins/Hunt), this draft didn't contribute any team cornerstones.

No Seahawks fan speaks of Malik McDowell, but the 2017 draft class has become notorious due to that selection. Griffin was a quality starter at CB who didn't earn a second contract, and while Pocic/Jones/Thompson/Moore all played bit roles, it's Chris Carson who stands out here, though his injuries will always leave us wondering what could have been.

The 2018 draft brought another sad realization from the 1st round in Rashaad Penny, who has barely seen the field through the years, while Green/Dissly/Griffin/Flowers/Jones have all been role players at points in time. Dickson is the lone Pro Bowler so far from this class. The punter.

Flowers' departure means Rasheem Green is the only defensive draft pick from the 2013-2018 drafts who's still on the Seahawks roster.

Jarran Reed is the only one who got a contract extension and he ended up in KC this offseason at a lower salary.

— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) October 12, 2021

In the present, it is still too early to tell if many of the following players will be long-term successes.
There are questions in terms of fit, scheme, and goals for many of these players.

2019

1 - LJ Collier

2 - Marquise Blair

2 - DK Metcalf

3 - Cody Barton

4 - Gary Jennings Jr

4 - Phil Haynes

4 - Ugo Amadi

5 - Ben Burr-Kirven

6 - Travis Homer

6 - Demarcus Christmas

7 - John Ursua

2020

1 - Jordyn Brooks

2 - Darrell Taylor

3 - Damien Lewis

4 - Colby Parkinson

4 - DeeJay Dallas

5 - Alton Robinson

6 - Freddie Swain

7 - Stephen Sullivan

2021

2 - D'Wayne Eskridge

4 - Tre Brown
6 - Stone Forsythe

Going quickly through the picks from this list (that are still with the team), there are reasons for optimism.

Metcalf stands out like a sore thumb in this group: he is a bonafide superstar WR.

Blair has flashed at times as a quality secondary piece, but hasn't been healthy enough to be consistent.
Barton is a backup LB.
Haynes is a backup OL.
Amadi is a quality backup secondary player.
BBK is out for the year with a bad injury.
Homer is a PS-level RB.
Ursua is a PS-level WR.
Brooks is an average starting LB.
Taylor has flashed talent occasionally, but we just don't know what he is or could be yet.
Lewis is an average starting OG, and could be an above-average OG.
Parkinson has done nothing of note.
Dallas is a backup RB.
Robinson is similar to Taylor in that he has flashed occasionally, but there's more unknown than known.

Swain is a fine/good 4th WR.
Sullivan has done nothing of note.
Eskridge/Brown/Forsythe don't have enough time with the team for us to know anything yet.

Of those, reasonable 53-man roster pieces next season potentially could be Metcalf, Blair, Brooks, Taylor, Lewis, Dallas, Robinson, Swain, Eskridge, and Brown.

Now imagine this.

2013
2 - TE Travis Kelce (1 pick after Michael)
3 - DB Tyrann Mathieu
4 - OL JC Tretter
5 - DB Micah Hyde

2014
2 - WR Davante Adams (8 picks after Richardson)

3 - OG Gabe Jackson (17 picks after Britt)
5 - OL Corey Linsley

7 - DT  Shamar Stephen
7 - DE Shelby Harris

2015
5 - DT Grady Jarrett
5 - WR Stefon Diggs
6 - DB Quandre Diggs
6 - WR/TE Darren Waller

7 - OT Trent Brown

2016
2 - DT Chris Jones (6 picks after Ifedi)
2 - RB Derrick Henry
3 - OG Joe Thuney
3 - DB Justin Simmons
4 - QB Dak Prescott

5 - DT Matthew Ioannidis

There are many, many more, but since hindsight is 20/20, this is an entirely hypothetical exercise, and its usefulness has its limits.

We are simply addressing star players who were taken after many of the picks that PCJS made in multiple drafts, some of which ended up on past or current Seahawks teams (Jackson is the team's current starting guard, and Diggs is possibly the one bright spot of the current iteration's secondary).

The major caveat here is that most teams passed on these players multiple times, and if they had a chance to redo their drafts, none would look the same.

Still, the bust rate from 2013-2018 is... disheartening, to say the least.

Given that the massive success of three total draft years (2010-2012) developed the core of a team that went to back-to-back Super Bowls and the playoffs more often than not, it doesn't take more than a few great drafts to put a team into contention, as long as the other factors around that team are in place.

The biggest questions are:
(1) Have PCJS been drafting the best talent available?
(2) Have PCJS been drafting within their core philosophies?
(3) Have PCJS been considering quantity over quality?

After looking through the results of the last few years, what do you think?

The Path Forward: the Seahawks & Russell Wilson

Given that I am a Seahawks fan, it is apropos to dive WAY too deep into a path forward for Russell Wilson.

Brian Schottenheimer is gone, and the next offensive coordinator and playcaller will change everything about this team, most likely attempting to refocus the team towards Pete Carroll's main philosophies.

Pete always starts with one of his catchphrases: "it's all about the ball", which roughly translates to (1) create turnovers on defense, (2) prevent turnovers on offense, and (3) play ball control through a physical run game. Other core aspects include a defense that consistently stops the run and limits explosive plays, as well as an offense that creates explosive plays.

Given those items, plus the fan base's desire to "let Russ cook" contrasted with Pete's desire to "run the ball more", it's time to see what would unlock Russell Wilson's best.

Volume

One way to view the "cooking" catchphrase is to increase volume (total amount and opportunity) of passing plays. This year, Russell averaged about 35.88 passing attempts per game, the highest number of his career.

Did Brian "let Russ cook"? By this standard, yes.

Was it Pete's flavor? Not so much, as wee can see from the next graph.

Scoring Efficiency

Pete Carroll LOVES efficiency in football. Throughout Russell's career, he has raved about the quarterback's performance after efficient games, which don't necessarily correspond to high volume passing attacks.

Russell's most efficient year in terms of passing touchdown's per interception thrown was 2019 (6.2 to 1), and it wasn't especially close. That fell to a rate of 3.08 TD's per INT this year, which isn't "bad" by an NFL standard, but is still less than half as efficient (in terms of scoring) as the previous year.

My suspicion is that Pete allowed the "cooking" movement to start the 2020 season due to Russell's incredible efficiency last year, but once he hit a turnover streak in the middle of the season (10 in 4 games), Pete became much more cautious.

One core issue at play is this: though QB is the most important position on any football team, Pete assigns less value to it than other head coaches (not "de-valuing", per se, but rather "de-centralizing"). As can be observed from these next data points, QB play (in Pete's Seahawks teams) has some correlation to points scored, but not necessarily post-season success.

Play-by-Play Analysis

Generally speaking, the top chart is a positive reflection of Russell Wilson and the team when the line is lower (less passing attempts needed to score, which implies more explosive plays, better field position, and more efficiency), while the bottom chart is more positive when the line is higher (more points scored per play).

This year's Seahawks team scored the most points per play in Wilson's tenure as a Seahawk. However, both Super Bowl runs (2013 and 2014) look very different from the following years. During that two-year span, RW threw the ball less, had a worse TD-INT ratio (still above league average), and yet they scored more frequently per pass attempt and per play than most other seasons.

Most common reasons given: the Legion of Boom, Beast Mode, an incredible special teams unit, and, in essence, a team that de-centralized the quarterback position.

Every aspect of those teams was a threat. Any unit could score. Anyone could get a turnover (and yes, PC always philosophically counts "three-and-outs" as turnovers to the credit of the defense). That was Pete's definition of complementary football.

Granted, we could (and should) look at playcalling, offensive schemes, the use of play action, Russell's athleticism, and many other factors that impact the game, but there is a clear takeaway here. Pete wants this team to run HIS version of football again, and he has made that clear in multiple interviews. He believes that he knows the best, most consistent, most reliable way to win football games and establish a winning culture long-term, and he does not believe that the formula involves putting all the eggs in one basket.

Russell is known to be an incredibly humble human being, but this transition is the test: is he willing to "go back" to being the best "game manager" to ever play the game?

Is he willing to sacrifice personal statistical achievement in order to continue building postseason success and a Hall of Fame postseason resume?

Time will tell.

Start & Trade: Week 1

As posted on Twitter, the "Start & Trade" series of articles start this week!

These articles are meant to be immediately helpful: each one will identify at least three (3) players who can easily be obtained in 8, 10, or 12-team fantasy leagues.

Then, we'll tell you why to start those players (for immediate fantasy success/impact).

Finally, we'll recommend some easy trade targets for the next week.

Good luck!

James White (New England Patriots)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB28

Week 1 Matchup: Chiefs, 9.8 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Saints

White is one of five possible Patriots' RB's who could be given opportunities in any given game, and that kind of system is extremely difficult to predict in terms of fantasy football.

However, if the first game of the season (and the entirety of last season) give us any hints, it looks like Gillislee will be the goal-line 'back, replacing Blount's role, and White will continue to be the pass-catching 'back.

Why is that important?
Well, with Julian Edelman out for the year, and with Malcolm Mitchell having been injured early in the season, there are suddenly targets to spread around to other pass-catchers.
Given that many of Brady's WR's now specialize in intermediate or deep-field work (and also given that Brady's downfield arm strength isn't spectacular), White will likely become his favorite dump-off target.

This probably won't send White skyrocketing in value to an RB2, but it may provide him with a nice floor in PPR leagues, and his ceiling will probably be shown against a terrible Saints defense this coming week.

Given this matchup, White is a suggested starter this week.

Take advantage of early-season panic: after he has a big game this week (projecting 11-15 PPR points), see if it's possible to trade for an RB with better long-term value, like Isaiah Crowell of the Browns.

Crowell plays Baltimore's stout defense this week, and his value will likely be at its lowest point of the season: use that opportunity to get him cheap.

Kerwynn Williams (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB35

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 8.2 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

David Johnson was the consensus #1 overall pick this year, and is now expected to be out until Christmas.

Johnson's immediate fill-in will be Williams, so he will have some value if you were able to pick him up this week, possibly even functioning as an RB2.

However, Arians has already stated that there may something of a committee approach taken here, and that would mean other RB's may get significant touches (Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson, etc.).

So even though Williams will likely have a great week against the Colts and their putrid defense, he probably won't maintain season-long RB2 value.

Use his projected big game against the Colts, alongside early-season over-thinking, to make a trade for someone like Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers.

McCaffrey had an okay opening game against the 49ers, but will play the Bills this week, and despite their mess of an offense, they do still have a solid defense.

This should push McCaffrey's immediate value down, and may present an opportunity to get a player who will rebound quickly with a matchup the next week against the Saints.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Wide Receiver
Positional Ranking: WR16

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 15.3 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

Nelson had a good fantasy week for his first game of the season with 5 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown, and he represents the Cardinals' only deep threat.

Nelson should have a great week this week: John Brown is out, so he should have many more opportunities, and the Colts defense is just awful, as stated before.
Though he has flashed talent before, he has also been wildly inconsistent in fantasy football and real life, and Palmer's declining accuracy makes this a real issue as a season-long prospect.

Play this matchup to your advantage: with two weeks of top-20 (or possibly higher) fantasy scores, make a package trade for a player who has much more long-term value.

This could include players like T.Y. Hilton, Terrelle Pryor, or Doug Baldwin.

All these players have current situations which could keep them from over-achieving at this point, but they are all projected to improve significantly over the course of the season.

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 2)

In the second part of our running back recap series, we continue to dig deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

Devonta Freeman

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 3.8
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 17.8

Observations:
1. With Freeman, we begin seeing more standard running back trends: he has some off weeks, and often surrounds those with fantastic weeks.
2. Freeman had two weeks where he scored more than 30 fantasy points, and had a higher actual fantasy ceiling than either McCoy or Murray: part of this may be due to age, since both of those RB's are approaching 30, and Freeman just turned 25 this offseason.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 25.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 10.3
Consistency Differential: 15

Observations:
1. Freeman has a higher average fantasy ceiling than Murray, but once again, this could be age-related or scheme-related as opposed to talent-related.
2. Freeman has the lowest average fantasy floor so far, but since it's still above ten points per game, he still provides real promise as an every-game starter.
3. Freeman does have the second-largest "Consistency Differential" so far, implying that he is not the most consistent fantasy 'back week-to-week, but that could lessen as he continues growing in Atlanta's offense.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.625 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 5.875

Observations:
1. One of the most interesting discoveries so far is that Freeman has the smallest "Opportunity Differential"; meaning, he was used more consistently on a per-game basis as compared to any of the top-5 RB's from last season.
2. Nonetheless, Freeman having a small "Opportunity Differential" and a large "Consistency Differential" means that he is the epitome of hot-and-cold, and his visual chart above seems to back this up.

Conclusion:
Devonta Freeman is a solid late-1st or early-2nd round pick in almost every redraft league, and gets a boost to his value in PPR leagues.

Melvin Gordon

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 36.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: 0.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.3

Observations:
1. Gordon is an interesting case: he finished the 2016 season as the #7 overall fantasy RB, but basically missed the last four games of the season with a hip injury.
2. As per usual, games in which Gordon did not touch the ball are not factored into his average fantasy PPG; however, his average goes up to 20.8 fantasy PPG if the week 14 game (where he only scored half a point due to the injury occurring early in the game) is factored out.
3. For comparison's sake, if his week 14 game is factored out, Gordon's average fantasy PPG ranks higher than Freeman, Murray, or McCoy: as it is, it still ranks higher than both Freeman and Murray.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 26.1
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.5
Consistency Differential: 13.6

Observations:
1. Once again, that week 14 game has a large impact on Gordon's averages: his average fantasy floor raises to almost 15 points without it, but his ceiling would only increase to 26.7, which would reduce his overall "Consistency Differential" by nearly two points.
2. Nonetheless, Gordon's "Consistency Differential" is still smaller than Johnson's, McCoy's, and Freeman's: as is the case with these top-tier 'backs, that fact is interesting and revealing, but not necessarily more useful than any other statistic by itself.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 28.7 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 16.7 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 12

Observations:
1. That week 14 game skews everything: if it's removed from these calculations, Gordon's average opportunity floor reaches 19.7, while his ceiling only goes up to 29, reducing his "Opportunity Differential" from 12 to 9.3.
2. Gordon's game with the least carries (and one of the few games where he did not catch a pass) was the first game of the season: he was a major point of the gameplan in every game, as shown by his average opportunity floor reaching nearly 20 touches per game (without week 14 skewing the numbers).

Conclusion:
Gordon actually has one of the highest ceilings of all running backs next season: if he had stayed healthy during the 2016 season, he likely would have been the #4 overall RB, and would have outscored McCoy, Murray, and Freeman in the process.

Mark Ingram

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 31.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: -1.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.1

Observations:
1. Though it doesn't happen often, Ingram was one of the few RB's to have a game where he scored negative points overall: -1.5 points in week 8 versus Seattle.
2. Ingram has the lowest actual fantasy floor so far, and also the lowest average fantasy PPG: he represents the first major divide between running backs who are commonly regarded in RB1 territory, and those regarded as RB2 options.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23
Average Fantasy Floor: 7.3
Consistency Differential: 15.7

Observations:
1. Ingram's average fantasy ceiling isn't terrible, but his average fantasy floor kills his value in comparison to the other running backs so far: when he struggled in a game, it showed in a big way.
2. Interestingly enough, Ingram's "Consistency Differential" is the biggest so far: the difference between his average good game and average bad game (from a fantasy perspective) was huge.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 11 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.4

Observations:
1. Over twenty touches per game is good, but not great: Ingram was not as much of a workhorse as many of the other running backs listed prior.
2. Additionally, though Ingram's "Opportunity Differential" isn't the biggest so far, his average opportunity floor is the lowest to this point: eleven touches per game isn't optimal for a primarily non-pass-catching RB.

Conclusion:
Ingram was a solid high-end RB2 (and sometimes low-end RB1) last season, and finally played a whole season's worth of games: nonetheless, with the addition of Peterson this offseason, it looks more difficult for him to finish in that range again, though a low-end RB2 finish isn't out of sight.

LeGarrette Blount

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 26.4
Actual Fantasy Floor: 6.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 14.6

Observations:
1. Blount has the highest actual fantasy floor so far outside of the top three running backs, partially due to his surprisingly heavy usage as a short-yardage back and as a goal-line threat.
2. Blount's average fantasy PPG is the lowest yet, but I would almost have preferred to have him on my team over Ingram last season, given how consistent he was, and his relatively high floor.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 19.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.9
Consistency Differential: 9.3

Observations:
1. Since Blount only had three games where he scored more than 20 points, his average fantasy ceiling is definitely lower than any other RB so far: he isn't known for his explosive play-making ability.
2. On the other hand, Blount's "Consistency Differential" is the lowest of all running backs so far, meaning that he was good for around 10-20 fantasy points every game, regardless of matchup.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 22.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 15.9 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Consistent usage was Blount's biggest positive last year: his average opportunity floor was higher than both McCoy's floor and Freeman's floor.
2. Though he isn't a pass-catching back, an "Opportunity Differential" of 6.5 is tied with Murray for the smallest so far, meaning that he was used in every game, no matter the opponent.

Conclusion:
Blount is going from lead-back duties in New England to possible lead-back duties in Philadelphia: since they don't have the same caliber offense as the Patriots, he will likely regress outside the top-10 running backs next year.

Jordan Howard

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 30.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.2
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.3

Observations:
1. Given that Howard didn't touch the ball once in week 1, that game is left out of all calculations, including his average fantasy PPG: this helps to explain why his average is higher than Blount's and Ingram's.
2. Howard only had five touches in the week 2 game against Houston when he was techincally still third on Chicago's depth chart, so it might be more fair to average out his fantasy PPG without that week's score considered: if that game is left out, his average fantasy PPG jumps to 16.1, almost a full point higher per game.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 21.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.5
Consistency Differential: 11.7

Observations:
1. Howard didn't end the season with a great average fantasy floor, partially due to games in week 2 and 7 where he was given minimal opportunities.
2. A "Consistency Differential" of 11.7 means Howard was a more consistent fantasy scorer than all top-10 running backs except Elliott, Murray, and Blount.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.2 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 13.3 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 10.9

Observations:
1. From week 8 onwards, Howard was used a minimum of 15 times per game, so the stats are a little skewed here: his average opportunity floor doesn't take into account when he became the full-time starter.
2. Similarly, Howard's "Opportunity Differential" would be much smaller if it was measured from week 8 onwards (or even from week 4 and afterwards) due to his role in the offense growing throughout the beginning of the season.

Conclusion:
Howard projects incredibly well for next season, despite the Bears being in relative chaos compared to other organizations: his stats during the second half of last season tell the story of a potential top-5 fantasy running back.

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 1)

In the first part of our running back recap series, we begin digging deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

NOTE: please refer to the previous article about statistics and fantasy football analysis to discover the background behind some of the following discussions.

David Johnson

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 38.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 7.4
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 25.5

Observations:
1. Johnson only had one game below 10 fantasy points, which is insane: he rewarded those who took a chance on him last season.
2. Any player who has an average fantasy PPG above 20 is considered a sure-fire thing (and he isn't even a quarterback), so you definitely are considering him as a potential #1 overall pick next season.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 32.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 18.6
Consistency Differential: 13.8

Observations:
1. The fact that Johnson's average floor is nearly 20 points is ridiculous, and reveals how much of an outlier that last game was.
2. "Consistency Differential" is useful, but really has no bearing on the highest-scoring player in the game: he may not be the most consistent fantasy player to draft, but who cares? His floor is higher than most RB's ceilings!
3. This reveals an interesting note: "Average Fantasy Floor" is actually the stat that most people look at when they say they want a "consistent" player.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 29.125 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 17.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11.625

Observations:
1. Johnson was a part of every gameplan, and was used in the passing game often.
2. When a low-usage game still involves a player getting more than 15 touches, there is no need to worry about him potentially losing opportunities.

Conclusion:
David Johnson will be the #1 overall draft pick in most redraft leagues this year, with good reason.

Ezekiel Elliott

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 40.9
Actual Fantasy Floor: 10.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 21.7

Observations:
1. Even though Elliott technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. As proof of just how good Johnson is, even compared to a top-tier RB like Elliott, the difference in average fantasy PPG is nearly 4 points, which is huge.
3. Elliott may perform better in PPR leagues this year, however, since (1) Lance Dunbar (the Cowboys' pass-catching 'back) is no longer with the team, and (2) Elliott now has a full year of experience in this system.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 16.1
Consistency Differential: 11.2

Observations:
1. Week 10 was Elliott's week, as he scored 40.9 points, which is more than Johnson scored in any game last season; however, his average ceiling is lower than Johnson's, which means that score was a pretty big outlier.
2. Elliott's "Consistency Differential" is smaller than Johnson's, revealing that on average, Elliott was more a more consistent scorer from game; as mentioned previously, however, this does not mean he should surpass Johnson in draft status.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 27.1 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 20.1 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 7

Observations:
1. Since the Cowboys entire gameplan often revolved around a ball-control offense, it should come as no surprise that Elliott touched the ball 20-27 times per game on average.
2. Elliott will likely continue to see this type of workload going forward, especially given his immensely successful rookie year, so he is a good bet to increase his fantasy point total from this year.

Conclusion:
Elliott will be one of the first three picks in most redraft leagues, unless reported off-field concerns push him down some draft boards.

Le'Veon Bell

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 51.8
Actual Fantasy Floor: 13
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 26.5

Observations:
1. Similar to Elliott, even though Bell technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. Bell is an interesting study: though he was suspended for the first three games of the season and didn't play in the last game, his average PPG is higher than Johnson's, and his actual fantasy floor is higher as well.
3. Some justify taking Bell over Johnson with the first pick, and it is understandable: if he can stay out of issues off the field and stay healthy on it, he has the potential for an even higher ceiling than Johnson has.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 33
Average Fantasy Floor: 19.9
Consistency Differential: 13.1

Observations:
1. Bell scored the most point of any RB in a single game last season with 51.8, where he gained 298 total yards and scored three touchdowns on 42 touches: insane totals all around.
2. Bell has a "Consistency Differential" similar to that of Johnson, but once again, it matters less when you're talking about one of the top-3 overall picks in this year's draft, considering how high his average fantasy floor is (higher than Johnson's).

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 33.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 22.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11

Observations:
1. Part of the reason for Bell having a high average fantasy floor is his high average opportunity floor: in other words, if he generally touches the ball no less than 22 or 23 times a game, he has plenty of opportunities to score, and should be considered a true workhorse.
2. Bell's "Opportunity Differential" can mean that in a WR-heavy game plan (with a lot of Roethlisberger-Brown built in), he will see 11 less touches on average than in an RB-heavy game plan.

Conclusion:
Fantasy pundits often make a case for Bell as a potential #1 overall pick, and as long as he doesn't get hit with any suspensions or injuries, that's a legitimate consideration.

LeSean McCoy

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 1.1
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.9

Observations:
1. Outside of Johnson, Elliott, and Bell, basically every other RB will have two or more "bust" weeks: in McCoy's case, these were weeks 7 and 17, where he scored 1.1. points and 2.6 points, respectively.
2. McCoy also had a week where he didn't touch the ball and scored 0 points, and once again, it isn't factored into his actual fantasy floor or average fantasy PPG.
3. Though McCoy will continue to be considered an RB1 for the upcoming fantasy season, with good reason, there is a large drop-off in terms of last year's statistics from the top three RB's and himself.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.6
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.2
Consistency Differential: 15.4

Observations:
1. "Bust weeks" play into McCoy's "Consistency Differential", which is the biggest one so far, meaning that he is the least consistent week-to-week fantasy running back thus far.
2. "Consistency Differential" is nice because it shows patterns of drop-offs due to age or injury, both of which are slowly creeping up on McCoy: he should have another season or two of RB1 in him, however.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 23.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.1

Observations:
1. McCoy was not used quite as much as the top three RB's last season, but that is reasonable given his age, and the fact that he was injured in a couple games.
2. He was still used almost 15 times on average in low-usage games, so he proved reliable as a workhorse once again: if a running back gets between 15 and 24 touches per game on average, he's worth a 1st or 2nd round pick in general.

Conclusion:
McCoy may not be a top-3 RB next season, but he is a solid option who still averaged between 12 and 28 points per game on average: don't be disappointed if he falls to you near the end of the 1st round in redraft leagues.

DeMarco Murray

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 28
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.9
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 18.4

Observations:
1. Murray's only true "bust" week was week 17, which is typical for many starting running backs prior to the playoffs.
2. Murray played in every game this season and never carried the ball less than 11 times in a game.
3. Murray may not have the ceiling of the other players, but any running back averaging over 18 PPG is still worth a pretty high pick in redraft leagues.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 13.3
Consistency Differential: 10.1

Observations:
1. Murray has the smallest "Consistency Differential" so far, which makes him the most consistent week-to-week scorer of the top 5 running backs.
2. Notice that Murray's average fantasy floor is actually higher than McCoy's: this is where McCoy could be regarded as ever so slightly more of a high-risk, high-reward player than Murray.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.9 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 18.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Murray actually had a higher average opportunity floor than both Johnson and McCoy last season, meaning that even in a low-usage game, he still was a true bell-cow for the Titans.
2. Additionally, Murray has the smallest "Opportunity Differential" so far, making him (on average) the most consistent top 5 running back in terms of opportunity and fantasy points last season.

Conclusion:
Murray is approaching the dreaded age-30 cliff, and Derrick Henry is a young up-and-comer, but there may not be another offense in the NFL that runs the ball like the Titans: he will continue to be a solid RB1 at least through next season, as long as he stays healthy.

Drafting Consistent Fantasy Options Using Differentials And Averages

"Consistency Differential", as it relates to fantasy football, is a term I've been working on for a few months now: it is not the only one, however.

It, and other terms, will become valuable tools in the upcoming season, and hopefully people in the fantasy community (besides myself) will find them interesting and helpful as well.

This article references fantasy points as scored by ESPN Standard Scoring.

STATISTICS TIME:
One interesting observation comes from comparing a player's top games (half of the games the player participated in, or his "average ceiling") versus his lowest-scoring games (the other half of the games the player participated in, or his "average floor").
The resulting differential shows the average variance between a poor showing and a great game: in other words, it is a "Consistency Differential" in fantasy football.
The smaller the resulting number, the more consistent the player's scores (on average).

EQUATION:
(the top half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) - (the bottom half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) = "Consistency Differential"

PROBLEM SOLVED:
When a player plays in an odd number of games, his median score (middle number) is divided in half, and each half of a player's fantasy scores (top and bottom) is divided by another half-game.

EXAMPLE 1:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in every game last year, so we take the average of his lowest scoring eight games and the average of his highest scoring eight games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
In his lowest scoring games, he scored 26.1, 25.1, 23.2, 17.8, 17.3, 17.1, 14.4, and 7.4 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
If we average those scores out, his average floor during the 2016 season was ~18.6 points per game.
Additionally, if we do the same thing for his highest scoring games (38.5, 35, 34.8, 33.6, 33.5, 30.1, 27.1, 26.8), we discover that his average ceiling during the 2016 season was ~32.4 points per game.
Finally, if we subtract his average floor from his average ceiling, we discover that his "Consistency Differential" is approximately 13.8: this represents the average difference between his average floor and average ceiling in games he played in during the 2016 NFL season.
In the end, David Johnson's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is ~13.8 point.

EXAMPLE 2:
Lamar Miller (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 14 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring seven games and the average of his highest scoring seven games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 7.
Lowest-scoring games: 13.8, 11.7, 9.7, 8.5, 8.3, 3.4, and 2.8 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.5 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 32.8, 19.3, 19.2, 16.9, 15.7, 14.7, and 14.3 points.
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~19 points per game.
Lamar Miller's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 10.5 points.

EXAMPLE 3:
Tevin Coleman (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 13 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring six games and the average of his highest scoring six games, then use the "Problem Solved" equation to divide the middle game out and determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 6.5.
Lowest-scoring games: 14.4, 9.3, 8.6, 6.3, 4.9, and 2.7 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.25 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 29.9, 26.3, 22.5, 19.5, 16.7, and 15.1 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~21.15 points per game.
Tevin Coleman's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12.9 points.

WHAT IT MEANS:
The "Consistency Differential" equation produces a number, and the size of that number tells people how consistent (on average) players have been in past seasons of fantasy football.
Smaller numbers mean that on average, players have been more consistent in fantasy football than those with larger numbers.
Given the above examples, we can tell that Lamar Miller was, on average, more consistent than either David Johnson or Tevin Coleman in terms of scoring during the 2016 fantasy football season.
However, there are obvious limitations here: Johnson's average floor last season was nearly equivalent to Miller's average ceiling, and thus, Johnson was obviously a much safer pick than Miller.

APPLYING AVERAGES:
Averages, as a concept, are useful in fantasy football to determine more than just consistency: they can help determine opportunities, trends, and effectiveness of many players.
Consider the amount of opportunities the above three running backs got per game last season: to determine "Average Opportunity Ceiling", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball most and average them out.
Likewise, to determine "Average Opportunity Floor", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball least and average them out: the difference will be the "Opportunity Differential".

EXAMPLE:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry or reception in every game last year, so we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
Games with most touches: 41, 32, 30, 29, 27, 25, 25, and 24.
"Average Opportunity Ceiling" last season: ~29.125 touches per game.
Games with least touches: 22, 21, 21, 20, 17, 16, 15, and 8.
"Average Opportunity Floor" last season: ~17.5 touches per game.
David Johnson's "Opportunity Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12 touches per game: that is, the average difference between his "Average Opportunity Ceiling" and "Average Opportunity Floor".

SUMMATION:
This example shows that Johnson, on average, would record a carry or reception between approximately 18 and 29 times per game during the 2016 season.
Similarly to "Consistency Differential", a smaller "Opportunity Differential" is always better: in upcoming articles, I will compare the differentials of running backs and other positions.