Monday, March 13, 2017

3 Roster Moves That Are Better Than They Appear

It's been a while since our last posting, and not without reason: posting fantasy football articles during the last week of playoffs, the Super Bowl, and right afterwards is often a losing venture.

Most football fanatics took to cheering on a team they didn't normally root for, while also boozing up or losing money on fruitless bets based on how embarrassed Goodell would look when handing the final trophy to the Patriots.

Regardless, the one month of true quiet time in football has passed, and the sheer amount of activity in this year's free agency period requires us to start diving into how this may affect the upcoming fantasy football season.

Let's begin with three moves that have already happened that are better than they appear, and may impact the entire NFL in the upcoming season.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 21
2. Completion Percentage: 59.4%
3. Passing Yards: 4,100
4. Yards Per Pass Attempt: 6.51
5. TD/INT Ratio: 30/15
6. Passer Rating: 84.6

Hot Take(s)

Glennon, a 27 year-old quarterback who played for North Carolina State University, was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and played in thirteen games that year as their starting QB for a majority of the season.
He started a few games once again the next season, and continued his moderate statistical success.
Of the 21 games that he has played in, he only won 6, and one is on his record as a win despite him not accruing any stats at all (vs. Chicago in 2016), which likely means he only went in near the end to hand the ball off or kneel down: if we take that game off his record, he has a 25% win ratio.

Given that, his surrounding cast was not what one would call "fantastic", and his stats were alright.
The one statistic that would scare me as a coach is his YPPA at 6.51 yards per pass attempt, and it was actually lower than that (6.3 YPPA) during the year he started the majority of games: in fact, it was the lowest in the league, meaning he was probably throwing at or behind the line of scrimmage often.


When going through his tape, he looks stronger than the majority of backup QB's in the league, and I would almost say that he looks better than some of the starters in the league last year.
In my opinion, he has untapped potential, and the Bears thought so too, as seen in the Tweets below.

That kind of money isn't as crazy as it may seem: given that the terms essentially make this a fancy "prove-it" deal with low-end starter money (22nd in the league among quarterbacks, less than Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor).
Also, considering how poorly Jay Cutler was regarded in Chicago, it was time for a switch.


So we ask the question: can Glennon succeed where Cutler failed?
Well, the Bears roster is looking better on the offensive side of the ball: running backs such as Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford have had some limited success in the past, and Jordan Howard was a revelation last season.
Where it concerns wide receivers, the Bears are suddenly loaded as well.
Cameron Meredith was fantastic at points last season, often outperforming the now-gone Alshon Jeffery, and former 1st-round pick Kevin White still has yet to find his ceiling.
Additionally, guys like Markus Wheaton, Kendall Wright, Eddie Royal, Rueben Randle, and Joshua Bellamy all have potential to make an impact on this roster, with Wheaton likely taking over #2 receiver duties.
On top of all that, Zach Miller (TE) was starting to find a groove as well, and if he picks up where he left off, that means Glennon will have more weapons than Cutler ever did (with the notable exceptions of 2013 where he had Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte all at their prime).

Give the guy a chance: he has a level of talent, and his surrounding cast now has talent as well.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 57
2. Receptions: 126
3. Reception Yards: 1,451
4. Yards Per Reception: 11.5
5. Touchdowns: 19
6. Explosive plays (20+ yards): 23

Hot Take(s)

Allen, a 27 year-old tight end who played for Clemson, was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL draft by the Indianapolis Colts, and has played in 57 of 80 possible games, including a 2013 season where he only played in a single game due to a hip injury which landed him on injured reserve after the first game of the season.
Allen has struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career, though that didn't stop the Colts from signing him to a large extension (nearly $30 million over four years) in March of 2016.
His PFF (Pro Football Focus) grades have steadily declined over the course of his career, from a high of 86.2 during his rookie year down to a 45.6 in the 2015 season.


Given that, one interesting note is that he has effectively functioned in constant two-TE sets throughout his NFL career, across from Coby Fleener (with the New Orleans Saints as of last year).
Last year (his first without Fleener), Allen's overall grades only increased a little bit, so Fleener was not the sole factor dragging him down.
One more interesting note: during the 2016 season, the Colts discovered Jack Doyle's talents and signed him to a three-year, $19 million contract this offseason.

Now, the Patriots gave up a fourth-round pick and take on Allen's contract, so they obviously think he's worth something: his highest PFF grade last season was in the area of pass catching, so he may become a part of the offense opposite Gronk.

Last season, the Patriots worked with Martellus Bennett across from Gronkowski, and that (obviously) payed dividends for the team.
Opposing teams had to choose who to cover while still being vulnerable across the entire line of scrimmage and middle of the field: the only thing that prevented this duo from becoming one of the best tight end sets in recent memory was Gronk's injury.
Can we expect similar concepts and results with Allen stepping in to Bennett's shoes?
Absolutely.
Expect Bill Belichick to utilize these tight ends in a very similar manner to last year, and as long as Gronk is healthy, expect opposing teams to fail at covering one (or both) every game.
Allen is younger than Bennett by 3 years, and though he also lacks 3 inches in height comparatively, he has always had more potential than he has lived up to.

Expect Belichick to once again utilize multiple TE sets to wreck portions of the league and keep defensive coordinators up at night.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 104
2. Receptions: 309
3. Reception Yards: 4,881
4. Yards Per Reception: 15.8
5. Touchdowns: 30
6. Explosive plays (20+ yards): 96

Hot Take(s)

Britt, a 28 year-old wide receiver who played for Rutgers, was drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 NFL draft by the Tennessee Titans, and has played in 104 of 128 possible games, including a 2011 season where he only played in three total games due to tearing both his MCL and ACL: he was then placed on injured reserve.
Britt finally surpassed the 1,000 yard barrier last season (by 2 yards), and was targeted over 100 times for the first time in his career, pulling in ~61% of his targets.
His PFF (Pro Football Focus) grades have generally been positive with the exceptions of the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and over 8 total season as a pro, he has averaged a 76.5 grade, and is ranked 39th at his position (similar in position to other WRs such as Steve Smith and Mike Wallace).


Britt was Rutgers' first ever first-round pick in the NFL: he originally played for the Titans with players such as Vince Young and Chris Johnson, and continued playing for them from 2009 to 2014.
In 2014, he signed with the Rams on a one-year deal and earned a larger two-year contract by year's end.

His newest contract is with the Browns: 4 years for $32.5 million.
Given the everlasting "the Browns gonna Brown" mentality, it is difficult to see a situation in which he single-handedly remedies the franchise's poor record.

The Browns consistently have unsolvable quarterback issues, and until those issues are resolved, faith in this offense is difficult to come by.
This offseason, the Browns traded for Brock Osweiler, though due to the lack of inspiration that brings, the common thought is that he will be cut or traded once again prior to the beginning of the season.
Rookie Cody Kessler had solid moments mixed in amidst a mess of a season, and may compete to be the starter, though no one will be surprised in the Browns trade for a QB or draft another QB this year.
All of those quarterback issues reflect poorly on the wide receiver position, especially for fantasy football purposes.

Britt is talented and underrated (in my opinion), but he's no Josh Gordon: until the QB carousel in Cleveland finally ends, Britt will be another under-utilized player worth nothing more than a late-round fantasy flier.