These rankings are in a living document, so they will be changing throughout the offseason as new information comes forward.
Nonetheless, check them out and enjoy!
PUBLISHED: 6/4/17
UPDATE: 6/11/17
Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017 (Google Sheet)
Showing posts with label Yahoo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yahoo. Show all posts
Sunday, June 4, 2017
Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017
Here are our current rankings for each offensive position in fantasy football.
These rankings are in a living document, so they will be changing throughout the offseason as new information comes forward.
Nonetheless, check them out and enjoy!
PUBLISHED: 6/4/17
UPDATE: 6/11/17
Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017 (Google Sheet)
These rankings are in a living document, so they will be changing throughout the offseason as new information comes forward.
Nonetheless, check them out and enjoy!
PUBLISHED: 6/4/17
UPDATE: 6/11/17
Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017 (Google Sheet)
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Midseason Top-5 Positional Rankings
As a generality, people don't like change.
They like plans, and having some degree of follow-through.
Conversely, people love risk.
Not actual risk, mind you, but situations that APPEAR to be risky, even though the outcome is pre-determined in their favor.
When things are actually unpredictable, such as in fantasy football, we get responses like this:
Top 5 RB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. David Johnson - 149 points
2. DeMarco Murray - 135 points
3. Melvin Gordon - 128 points
4. Ezekiel Elliott - 117 points
5. LeGarrette Blount - 112 points
Currently, only two RB's who held a 1st-round ADP in 12-team leagues are currently in the top 5 (Johnson and Elliott).
Murray's ADP was in the early 5th round, Gordon's ADP was in the mid-6th round, and Blount was being drafted in the late 9th round.
This is why some fantasy pundits hold to the "zero-RB" draft strategy: not that they refuse to draft running backs, but they would rather find value in the mid and late rounds.
Nonetheless, two of these players are returning solid value on their position, and many had more consistent scores than their early-round WR counterparts.
Top 5 WR's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Julio Jones - 105 points
2. A.J. Green - 104 points
3. Mike Evans - 94 points
4. T.Y. Hilton - 92 points
5. Michael Crabtree - 91 points
Based on 12-team league ADP's, two of the above WR's were drafted in the 1st-round (Jones and Green), but many fantasy owners have been severely disappointed at their lack of consistency.
Julio Jones has scored 12 or more points on five separate occasions, but he was held to only 1 or 2 points in the other three games.
Similarly, A.J. Green has scored 12 or more points on four different occasions, but was held to 8 or less points for the other half of his schedule.
Looking at the ESPN Live Draft results, Evans was being picked (on average) in the early 3rd round, Hilton in the mid-4th round, and Crabtree was becoming a value steal in the 8th round.
Many other wide receivers have fallen significantly from the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners: though Antonio Brown isn't doing terribly (currently 7th-ranked WR), OBJ (currently 12th-ranked WR) and DeAndre Hopkins (currently 31st-ranked WR) have both fallen well short of their 1st-round ADP's.
Top 5 QB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Matt Ryan - 175 points
2. Andrew Luck - 163 points
3. Drew Brees - 157 points
4. Derek Carr - 156 points
5. Matthew Stafford - 148 points
ADP reveals so much about the fantasy community's trust in players' production, and also how misplaced it is.
Though no quarterback had an ADP above the 16th overall pick (early 2nd-round), only two of these QB's were taken in the top 10 overall at their position.
Drew Brees was the 4th QB taken with an ADP in the 4th round, and Andrew Luck's was nearly identical.
Then we wait.
The next QB taken from this list was Stafford in the 9th round, with Carr only a couple spots behind.
And finally, "Matty Ice" was the 21st overall quarterback taken, and had an ADP in the 10th round.
The first three QB's taken on average?
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.
Swing-and-a-miss.
Top 5 TE's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Greg Olsen - 74 points
2. Rob Gronkowski - 64 points
3. Martellus Bennett - 60 points
4. Jordan Reed - 57 points
5. Delanie Walker - 56 points
The ADP for tight ends was much more predictive in its accuracy.
Four of the first five drafted TE's are on this list at the midseason checkpoint, which is a good sign for fantasy owners who invested semi-early for their TE.
The downside is that even a good TE (outside of the insanity of the Gronk machine) compares poorly to all other skill positions.
Olsen was drafted in the 4th round, Gronk was the earliest drafted TE with an ADP in the early 2nd round, Reed could be had in the late 3rd round, and Walker was being taken in the late 5th round.
The "surprise" man on this list is Bennett, who essentially was Gronkowski for the first few weeks of the season, and was a value pick in the 10th round.
They like plans, and having some degree of follow-through.
Conversely, people love risk.
Not actual risk, mind you, but situations that APPEAR to be risky, even though the outcome is pre-determined in their favor.
When things are actually unpredictable, such as in fantasy football, we get responses like this:
Yo I dislike Fantasy football man it's way too unpredictable everyone I finally quit on balling on the pine— Broke Boiardee (@NutE_One7) October 30, 2016
I don't know what's more unpredictable, my life or fantasy football— Sterling (@Sterling_Thomas) October 30, 2016
Fantasy football this season has been so unpredictable in all the worst ways— Michael Gentile (@michaelpgentile) October 30, 2016
Running Backs
(or, more accurately, "Limping Backs")
Adrian Peterson.— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016
Arian Foster.
Jamaal Charles.
CJ Anderson.
Eddie Lacy.
Bad season for RB's.#FantasyFootball#NFL
Top 5 RB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. David Johnson - 149 points
2. DeMarco Murray - 135 points
3. Melvin Gordon - 128 points
4. Ezekiel Elliott - 117 points
5. LeGarrette Blount - 112 points
Currently, only two RB's who held a 1st-round ADP in 12-team leagues are currently in the top 5 (Johnson and Elliott).
Murray's ADP was in the early 5th round, Gordon's ADP was in the mid-6th round, and Blount was being drafted in the late 9th round.
This is why some fantasy pundits hold to the "zero-RB" draft strategy: not that they refuse to draft running backs, but they would rather find value in the mid and late rounds.
Nonetheless, two of these players are returning solid value on their position, and many had more consistent scores than their early-round WR counterparts.
Wide Receivers
(who should form a band called "The Kings of Inconsistency")
#FantasyFootball fact of the day:— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016
Midway through the #NFL season, 6 RB's have more points than the top fantasy WR (#ESPN Standard Scoring).
1. Julio Jones - 105 points
2. A.J. Green - 104 points
3. Mike Evans - 94 points
4. T.Y. Hilton - 92 points
5. Michael Crabtree - 91 points
Based on 12-team league ADP's, two of the above WR's were drafted in the 1st-round (Jones and Green), but many fantasy owners have been severely disappointed at their lack of consistency.
Julio Jones has scored 12 or more points on five separate occasions, but he was held to only 1 or 2 points in the other three games.
Similarly, A.J. Green has scored 12 or more points on four different occasions, but was held to 8 or less points for the other half of his schedule.
Looking at the ESPN Live Draft results, Evans was being picked (on average) in the early 3rd round, Hilton in the mid-4th round, and Crabtree was becoming a value steal in the 8th round.
Many other wide receivers have fallen significantly from the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners: though Antonio Brown isn't doing terribly (currently 7th-ranked WR), OBJ (currently 12th-ranked WR) and DeAndre Hopkins (currently 31st-ranked WR) have both fallen well short of their 1st-round ADP's.
Quarterbacks
(preferably, all of our buy-in money back)
Positional #FantasyFootball comparison (#NFL week 8):Top QB: 175 ptsTop RB: 149 ptsTop WR: 105 ptsTop TE: 74 pts#FFF8
— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 9, 2016
Top 5 QB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Matt Ryan - 175 points
2. Andrew Luck - 163 points
3. Drew Brees - 157 points
4. Derek Carr - 156 points
5. Matthew Stafford - 148 points
ADP reveals so much about the fantasy community's trust in players' production, and also how misplaced it is.
Though no quarterback had an ADP above the 16th overall pick (early 2nd-round), only two of these QB's were taken in the top 10 overall at their position.
Drew Brees was the 4th QB taken with an ADP in the 4th round, and Andrew Luck's was nearly identical.
Then we wait.
The next QB taken from this list was Stafford in the 9th round, with Carr only a couple spots behind.
And finally, "Matty Ice" was the 21st overall quarterback taken, and had an ADP in the 10th round.
The first three QB's taken on average?
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.
Swing-and-a-miss.
Tight Ends
(the perpetual disappointments of the family)
The top #NFL #FantasyFootball TE (Greg Olsen) has about the same amount of points as:— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 3, 2016
1. 30th-ranked QB
2. 19th-ranked RB
3. 13th-ranked WR
Top 5 TE's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Greg Olsen - 74 points
2. Rob Gronkowski - 64 points
3. Martellus Bennett - 60 points
4. Jordan Reed - 57 points
5. Delanie Walker - 56 points
The ADP for tight ends was much more predictive in its accuracy.
Four of the first five drafted TE's are on this list at the midseason checkpoint, which is a good sign for fantasy owners who invested semi-early for their TE.
The downside is that even a good TE (outside of the insanity of the Gronk machine) compares poorly to all other skill positions.
Olsen was drafted in the 4th round, Gronk was the earliest drafted TE with an ADP in the early 2nd round, Reed could be had in the late 3rd round, and Walker was being taken in the late 5th round.
The "surprise" man on this list is Bennett, who essentially was Gronkowski for the first few weeks of the season, and was a value pick in the 10th round.
Friday, October 14, 2016
Week 5 Team Updates
Time for another moment of accountability: as per my previous articles, I intend to be an open book when it comes to my season in fantasy football.
Accountability is easiest when readers can see exactly what went down each week, so I've put screenshots of each week below (while maintaining anonymity for all other parties involved).
First up, the Yahoo 10-team PPR league.
Accountability is easiest when readers can see exactly what went down each week, so I've put screenshots of each week below (while maintaining anonymity for all other parties involved).
First up, the Yahoo 10-team PPR league.
WEEK 3
WEEK 4
WEEK 5
And now for the ESPN 12-team standard league.
WEEK 3
WEEK 4
WEEK 5
Current overall record:
3-2 in Yahoo
5-0 in ESPN
3-2 in Yahoo
5-0 in ESPN
Friday, September 30, 2016
Early-Season Fantasy Football Injuries and Replacements
Sometimes, it's not your fault.
Sometimes, it's not the player's fault.
But your fantasy football schedule takes no prisoners, and the result can be a messy beginning to your league's year.
So today, we dedicate an article to the guys who ruined (are still ruining?) your early-season success, and what kind of replacements are going on around the league.
1. WR Eric Decker (New York Jets)
So today, we dedicate an article to the guys who ruined (are still ruining?) your early-season success, and what kind of replacements are going on around the league.
1. WR Eric Decker (New York Jets)
Injury: Partially torn rotator cuff
Timeline: Week-to-week
Current Situation: 3rd in targets and receptions, 1st in yards and touchdowns among Jets' WR corps
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson
Only Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant (45 each) have more touchdown catches than Eric Decker (43) in the last five seasons. https://t.co/SAs760YFu9— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 30, 2016
This sucks for fantasy owners: head coach Todd Bowles calls the injury "week-to-week", which at least means surgery isn't needed, but that option hasn't been ruled out either.
No one knows whether he'll be back in Week 5 or if he's done for the season.
Quincy Enunwa should already be owned in most leagues (though ESPN is only recording him at ~37% ownership) due to the heavy usage of 3-wideout sets, but in case he isn't, pick him up fast.
The next man up would be Jalin Marshall, but he also has a significant injury: a torn shoulder labrum.
That leaves preseason stand-out Robby Anderson, a 6'3 undrafted rookie from Temple University weighing in at only 190 lbs.
Proceed with caution.
2. WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)
No one knows whether he'll be back in Week 5 or if he's done for the season.
Quincy Enunwa should already be owned in most leagues (though ESPN is only recording him at ~37% ownership) due to the heavy usage of 3-wideout sets, but in case he isn't, pick him up fast.
The next man up would be Jalin Marshall, but he also has a significant injury: a torn shoulder labrum.
That leaves preseason stand-out Robby Anderson, a 6'3 undrafted rookie from Temple University weighing in at only 190 lbs.
Proceed with caution.
2. WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)
Injury: Foot (pain management post-surgery)
Timeline: 8+ weeks
Current Situation: 2nd in targets and receptions, 4th in yards among Bills' WR corpsS
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Greg Salas, Justin Hunter
The Bills aren't much of a passing team right now (with the exception of the occasional deep ball), and Watkins hadn't been on the field much yet, but you had to expect more out of a guy who was being drafted 27th overall in Yahoo leagues and 32nd overall in ESPN leagues.
At this point, though, being out 8 weeks is the majority of the season: he might be back in time for fantasy football playoffs, but even that's up in the air.
Given the fact that that there isn't really a strong #2 wideout on this team, nor someone who can really fill those shoes, let's look at the most targeted WR: Robert Woods, who is only owned in 2.3% of ESPN leagues.
If that doesn't float your boat, you could aim for the more explosive but less targeted Goodwin or Salas, or take a true gamble on Justin Hunter.
If you're in a PPR league, Woods might be worth a look, but this feels like a situation to stay away from entirely.
3. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Injury: Hamstring strain
Timeline: Week 5 or Week 7 return
Current Situation: 2nd in rushing attempts and yards, 2nd in targets and receptions among Bucs' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Charles Sims, Jacquizz Rodgers
Martin is a pretty consistent fantasy producer when healthy, but Sims has been given a shot to take RB1 duties because of this injury.
Sims has shown strong talent in the past, and so this might get tricky once Martin is back.
Sims is already owned in 82% of Yahoo leagues and 85% of ESPN leagues, so it's not like this is one most people have left on the waiver wire.
Sims is a fantasy RB1 until Martin is healthy, and Rodgers has some previous NFL experience, so he could be a valuable backup if Sims goes down and/or if Martin ends up hurt for longer than projected.
4. RB Jeremy Langford (Chicago Bears)
Injury: Ankle
Timeline: 4-6 weeks
Current Situation: 1st in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and targets among Bears' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Jordan Howard, Ka'Deem Carey
Langford was being praised in certain realms during the offseason, and was praised by the coach for being better prepared and looking good, but was still struggling to get yards after contact this year when he went down with an ankle injury.
Howard immediately took over, and is currently considered an every-down back in Chicago's system.
Ka'Deem Carey may eventually play a role once he's healthy, but that's a couple weeks down the road, and since he's only owned in 1% of Yahoo and 5% of ESPN leagues, you don't have to rush to pick him up.
Also, Chicago's offense is not inspiring in the least, so don't lose sleep over missing out on these options.
Timeline: 8+ weeks
Current Situation: 2nd in targets and receptions, 4th in yards among Bills' WR corpsS
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Greg Salas, Justin Hunter
The #Bills have placed WR Sammy Watkins on Injured Reserve, putting him on the shelf for at least 8 weeks. They claimed Justin Hunter.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 30, 2016
The Bills aren't much of a passing team right now (with the exception of the occasional deep ball), and Watkins hadn't been on the field much yet, but you had to expect more out of a guy who was being drafted 27th overall in Yahoo leagues and 32nd overall in ESPN leagues.
At this point, though, being out 8 weeks is the majority of the season: he might be back in time for fantasy football playoffs, but even that's up in the air.
Given the fact that that there isn't really a strong #2 wideout on this team, nor someone who can really fill those shoes, let's look at the most targeted WR: Robert Woods, who is only owned in 2.3% of ESPN leagues.
If that doesn't float your boat, you could aim for the more explosive but less targeted Goodwin or Salas, or take a true gamble on Justin Hunter.
If you're in a PPR league, Woods might be worth a look, but this feels like a situation to stay away from entirely.
3. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Injury: Hamstring strain
Timeline: Week 5 or Week 7 return
Current Situation: 2nd in rushing attempts and yards, 2nd in targets and receptions among Bucs' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Charles Sims, Jacquizz Rodgers
Bucs officially ruled out RB Doug Martin (hamstring) and DE Robert Ayers (hamstring) for Sunday vs Denver. https://t.co/oWxGQwFvZf— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 30, 2016
Martin is a pretty consistent fantasy producer when healthy, but Sims has been given a shot to take RB1 duties because of this injury.
Sims has shown strong talent in the past, and so this might get tricky once Martin is back.
Sims is already owned in 82% of Yahoo leagues and 85% of ESPN leagues, so it's not like this is one most people have left on the waiver wire.
Sims is a fantasy RB1 until Martin is healthy, and Rodgers has some previous NFL experience, so he could be a valuable backup if Sims goes down and/or if Martin ends up hurt for longer than projected.
4. RB Jeremy Langford (Chicago Bears)
Injury: Ankle
Timeline: 4-6 weeks
Current Situation: 1st in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and targets among Bears' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Jordan Howard, Ka'Deem Carey
In the first 2 weeks, Jeremy Langford saw 77.4% of the Bears RB carries. With Langford out, Carey doubtful, Jordan Howard should eat.— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) September 30, 2016
Langford was being praised in certain realms during the offseason, and was praised by the coach for being better prepared and looking good, but was still struggling to get yards after contact this year when he went down with an ankle injury.
Howard immediately took over, and is currently considered an every-down back in Chicago's system.
Ka'Deem Carey may eventually play a role once he's healthy, but that's a couple weeks down the road, and since he's only owned in 1% of Yahoo and 5% of ESPN leagues, you don't have to rush to pick him up.
Also, Chicago's offense is not inspiring in the least, so don't lose sleep over missing out on these options.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Week 2 Team Updates
As mentioned in earlier posts, I intend to be as much of an open book as possible when it comes to how my teams are doing this season so that readers know whether to take any advice from me at all.
At this point in the 10-team college-crowd Yahoo PPR league, here's how Week 1 went:
Fortunately, there's always next week, and luck is a fickle thing.
For now, there's the updates on the leagues: feel free to comment below with questions or concerns about personnel changes or anything else,
At this point in the 10-team college-crowd Yahoo PPR league, here's how Week 1 went:
Yes, a loss.
Andrew Luck, Willie Snead, and David Johnson combined for enough points that I didn't stand much of a chance in this one.Fortunately, there's always next week, and luck is a fickle thing.
Like I said, luck is a fickle thing.
Winning by .28 points = so much last-minute stress.
The other league is the 12-team workplace ESPN standard league, and here's how the first week went:
I love blowout games when I'm on the winning side.
Ware was a great bet, and no one is ever really "low" on Antonio Brown.
Plus, Forte has been (and continues to be) a pleasant surprise.
I am LOVING Forte's workload at this point in the season.
For now, there's the updates on the leagues: feel free to comment below with questions or concerns about personnel changes or anything else,
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Inside The Mind
The age-old adage "Those who can't do, teach" is not only untrue in many cases, but it's also something you don't want to be true in most situations.
Example A: Generally, I hope that cooks are being taught how to prepare food items like fish and eggs correctly, or my Saturdays at the local bar and grill suddenly could become much less appealing.
Example B: Personally, I would also hope that surgeons are being taught by people who know what they're doing and can do it.
Imagine: "I think that's the right vein, Jim, but just in case, let me go check Google."
Etc.
And of course, you don't want fantasy football advice from some guy who can't achieve some level of success. Experience is the best teacher, so we don't expect the first season of someone's fantasy football career to be full of perfect predictions. Nonetheless, at some point it becomes ridiculous to keep taking draft advice from that neighbor who always "goes with his gut" and comes out 8th in 8-person leagues each year. So, with all that being said, I'm going to be as candid as possible with my drafts and how my season is going. There are two main leagues I'll be focusing on this year: a former college-crowd 10-team Yahoo PPR league, and a workplace 12-team ESPN standard league.
First up, the Yahoo league.
Draft Breakdown:
Once again, this is a 10-team PPR league, with our draft held on September 4th.
In this league, here are the extra factors I had to consider while drafting:
1. Each catch equals .5 points for all positions
2. Touchdowns are worth 6 points for all positions
3. Completions add .1 points for the QB
4. There are two active FLEX spots, one only open to WR/RB, and one including WR/RB/TE
I had the 7th overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: DeAndre Hopkins - WR
2nd: Ezekiel Elliott - RB
3rd: LeSean McCoy - RB
4th: Mike Evans - WR
5th: Doug Baldwin - WR
6th: Travis Kelce - TE
7th: Philip Rivers - QB
8th: Allen Hurns - WR
9th: Derrick Henry - RB
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Terrance West - RB
12th: Martellus Bennett - TE
13th: Terrelle Pryor - WR
14th: Tyrod Taylor - QB
15th: Cincinnati - DEF
16th: Justin Tucker - K
I can't say I was happy with all my positions afterwards, especially at QB, but the more I've considered this one, the more content I am. As far as draft strategy goes, this league pays out such high dividends to WR's that some RB's dropped farther than anyone thought they would. As such, I walked in considering a Zero-RB strategy and walked out with two top RB's in the first three rounds.
Flexibility is key, guys: if I had stuck to my Zero-RB mindset, imagine the buyer's remorse! Ezekiel Elliott at #14? LeSean McCoy at #27? I never could have predicted that. And I was fortunate enough to have Mike Evans drop all the way into the 4th round, giving me a solid #2 WR.
I might not be Marlon Brando, but I sure felt like Sky Masterson with Lady Luck on my side.
The next few rounds went somewhat as expected: I had contingencies, more contingencies, and contingencies for my contingencies, so not much was surprising at that point. I kept trying to grab WR's with high ceilings and progressively lower floors as the draft went on, and that seemed to be relatively successful. Hopkins has a high floor, Evans is slightly lower, Baldwin is slightly lower than that, etc. Rivers as my starting QB will be fine for the majority of the season, and Kelce as my top TE is fine as well: he's not Gronk or Reed, but he's not quite as injury-prone either.
The last few rounds felt like the crapshoot they are. My only goal was to walk out of them with the highest possible ceilings and not worry about if they crap out in the end. Boyd likely has a higher floor and ceiling than most late-round picks (considering Eifert's injury and the lack of other capable or veteran wideouts), so I had no hesitation there. West was looking like the starter for the Ravens' backfield until Forsett was re-signed and the dreaded "rotation" became imminent, so I opted to drop him and pick up Alfred Morris as a handcuff to Elliott: that feels like an even better decision since ESPN reported that Morris will have a role in the Cowboys offense as well.
Due to Gronk's high injury rate, Bennett feels more like a steal than anything: there are already concerns, and the Pats haven't even played their first game!
Pryor is my definition of a late-round flyer. RG3 could have a rebound year with Pryor as his main target until Gordon returns, and Pryor may keep a large amount of targets even afterwards if he proves more reliable. Taylor already had some nice moments last year, and feels like a more reliable gamble (yes, we all see the irony there) than most other backup QB options.
Here's the ESPN league.
Draft Breakdown:
This is a 12-team standard scoring league, with our draft held on September 1st.
In this league, there weren't extra scoring or playing factors I needed to consider, so this was much simpler to prepare for.
I had the 3rd overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: Antonio Brown - WR
2nd: Brandon Marshall - WR
3rd: Keenan Allen - WR
4th: Jeremy Maclin - WR
5th: Matt Forte - RB
6th: Melvin Gordon - RB
7th: Chris Ivory - RB
8th: Blake Bortles - QB
9th: Martellus Bennett - TE
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Spencer Ware - RB
12th: Jared Cook - TE
13th: Matt Ryan - QB
14th: Justin Tucker - K
15th: Vikings - DEF
This draft definitely had more of a Zero-RB vibe to it, which I feel a little up-in-the-air about. I'm not happy with Forte as my #1 RB or with Gordon as my #2 RB, but mostly it's the QB situation that scares me a bit.
Nonetheless, there are some great moments here. I LOVE Antonio Brown, especially with how limited the Steelers' other weapons are right now. He is going to pile on the targets.
Marshall is functionally a #1 receiver for fantasy purposes and Allen is a high-value #2, so the WR position is just stacked on this team. If my FLEX position ends up being Allen each week, I'll be a happy man. Either Allen or Maclin could serve as trade bait down the road if I want to try to improve another position's situation.
I hit the RB's hard after that four-round fling with the WR position, and what I got are basically three low-to-mid end RB2's. Forte should be the lead back for the Jets (maybe on a snap-count, though), Gordon is the lead back for the Chargers, and Ivory is the goal-line back for the Jags. If Gordon and the Chargers' O-line have improved even a little over the summer, he could be a great value. Similarly, if the Jags offense has improved as much as people want to believe, Ivory could get a multitude of opportunities to be the ultimate TD machine.
Bortles has a ton of upside due to his weapons, but we'll see if his accuracy can improve. It was pretty horrendous last year. I talked about Bennett and Boyd in the Yahoo section above, and you can see I double-downed on them here as well. Ware could turn out being one of the steals of the draft if Charles continues to struggle to come back from injury.
Let me know what you think: feel free to comment and tell me your thoughts!
Example A: Generally, I hope that cooks are being taught how to prepare food items like fish and eggs correctly, or my Saturdays at the local bar and grill suddenly could become much less appealing.
Example B: Personally, I would also hope that surgeons are being taught by people who know what they're doing and can do it.
Imagine: "I think that's the right vein, Jim, but just in case, let me go check Google."
Etc.
And of course, you don't want fantasy football advice from some guy who can't achieve some level of success. Experience is the best teacher, so we don't expect the first season of someone's fantasy football career to be full of perfect predictions. Nonetheless, at some point it becomes ridiculous to keep taking draft advice from that neighbor who always "goes with his gut" and comes out 8th in 8-person leagues each year. So, with all that being said, I'm going to be as candid as possible with my drafts and how my season is going. There are two main leagues I'll be focusing on this year: a former college-crowd 10-team Yahoo PPR league, and a workplace 12-team ESPN standard league.
First up, the Yahoo league.
Draft Breakdown:
Once again, this is a 10-team PPR league, with our draft held on September 4th.
In this league, here are the extra factors I had to consider while drafting:
1. Each catch equals .5 points for all positions
2. Touchdowns are worth 6 points for all positions
3. Completions add .1 points for the QB
4. There are two active FLEX spots, one only open to WR/RB, and one including WR/RB/TE
I had the 7th overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: DeAndre Hopkins - WR
2nd: Ezekiel Elliott - RB
3rd: LeSean McCoy - RB
4th: Mike Evans - WR
5th: Doug Baldwin - WR
6th: Travis Kelce - TE
7th: Philip Rivers - QB
8th: Allen Hurns - WR
9th: Derrick Henry - RB
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Terrance West - RB
12th: Martellus Bennett - TE
13th: Terrelle Pryor - WR
14th: Tyrod Taylor - QB
15th: Cincinnati - DEF
16th: Justin Tucker - K
I can't say I was happy with all my positions afterwards, especially at QB, but the more I've considered this one, the more content I am. As far as draft strategy goes, this league pays out such high dividends to WR's that some RB's dropped farther than anyone thought they would. As such, I walked in considering a Zero-RB strategy and walked out with two top RB's in the first three rounds.
Flexibility is key, guys: if I had stuck to my Zero-RB mindset, imagine the buyer's remorse! Ezekiel Elliott at #14? LeSean McCoy at #27? I never could have predicted that. And I was fortunate enough to have Mike Evans drop all the way into the 4th round, giving me a solid #2 WR.
I might not be Marlon Brando, but I sure felt like Sky Masterson with Lady Luck on my side.
The next few rounds went somewhat as expected: I had contingencies, more contingencies, and contingencies for my contingencies, so not much was surprising at that point. I kept trying to grab WR's with high ceilings and progressively lower floors as the draft went on, and that seemed to be relatively successful. Hopkins has a high floor, Evans is slightly lower, Baldwin is slightly lower than that, etc. Rivers as my starting QB will be fine for the majority of the season, and Kelce as my top TE is fine as well: he's not Gronk or Reed, but he's not quite as injury-prone either.
The last few rounds felt like the crapshoot they are. My only goal was to walk out of them with the highest possible ceilings and not worry about if they crap out in the end. Boyd likely has a higher floor and ceiling than most late-round picks (considering Eifert's injury and the lack of other capable or veteran wideouts), so I had no hesitation there. West was looking like the starter for the Ravens' backfield until Forsett was re-signed and the dreaded "rotation" became imminent, so I opted to drop him and pick up Alfred Morris as a handcuff to Elliott: that feels like an even better decision since ESPN reported that Morris will have a role in the Cowboys offense as well.
#Cowboys plan to start @EzekielElliott - 4th pick in draft - after only 14 preseason snaps. Vet Alfred Morris will have role too— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) September 10, 2016
Due to Gronk's high injury rate, Bennett feels more like a steal than anything: there are already concerns, and the Pats haven't even played their first game!
The #Patriots have officially downgraded TE Rob Gronkowski, OL Jonathan Cooper and OT Nate Solder to out. They didn't travel.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 10, 2016
Pryor is my definition of a late-round flyer. RG3 could have a rebound year with Pryor as his main target until Gordon returns, and Pryor may keep a large amount of targets even afterwards if he proves more reliable. Taylor already had some nice moments last year, and feels like a more reliable gamble (yes, we all see the irony there) than most other backup QB options.
Here's the ESPN league.
Draft Breakdown:
This is a 12-team standard scoring league, with our draft held on September 1st.
In this league, there weren't extra scoring or playing factors I needed to consider, so this was much simpler to prepare for.
I had the 3rd overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: Antonio Brown - WR
2nd: Brandon Marshall - WR
3rd: Keenan Allen - WR
4th: Jeremy Maclin - WR
5th: Matt Forte - RB
6th: Melvin Gordon - RB
7th: Chris Ivory - RB
8th: Blake Bortles - QB
9th: Martellus Bennett - TE
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Spencer Ware - RB
12th: Jared Cook - TE
13th: Matt Ryan - QB
14th: Justin Tucker - K
15th: Vikings - DEF
This draft definitely had more of a Zero-RB vibe to it, which I feel a little up-in-the-air about. I'm not happy with Forte as my #1 RB or with Gordon as my #2 RB, but mostly it's the QB situation that scares me a bit.
Nonetheless, there are some great moments here. I LOVE Antonio Brown, especially with how limited the Steelers' other weapons are right now. He is going to pile on the targets.
For MNF, the #Steelers declared WR Markus Wheaton (shoulder) out, while the #Redskins say WR Josh Doctson & RB Matt Jones are questionable— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 10, 2016
Marshall is functionally a #1 receiver for fantasy purposes and Allen is a high-value #2, so the WR position is just stacked on this team. If my FLEX position ends up being Allen each week, I'll be a happy man. Either Allen or Maclin could serve as trade bait down the road if I want to try to improve another position's situation.
I hit the RB's hard after that four-round fling with the WR position, and what I got are basically three low-to-mid end RB2's. Forte should be the lead back for the Jets (maybe on a snap-count, though), Gordon is the lead back for the Chargers, and Ivory is the goal-line back for the Jags. If Gordon and the Chargers' O-line have improved even a little over the summer, he could be a great value. Similarly, if the Jags offense has improved as much as people want to believe, Ivory could get a multitude of opportunities to be the ultimate TD machine.
Bortles has a ton of upside due to his weapons, but we'll see if his accuracy can improve. It was pretty horrendous last year. I talked about Bennett and Boyd in the Yahoo section above, and you can see I double-downed on them here as well. Ware could turn out being one of the steals of the draft if Charles continues to struggle to come back from injury.
Cook could potentially blow up as well as the Packer's first real pass-catching TE in a while, and it's worth a flier at that point in the draft. I'm not happy about Ryan as my backup QB, but I strongly believe in having an experienced one on my bench at all times, so we'll see where that goes over the course of the season.Spencer Ware is owned in just 17.5% of https://t.co/XOiohy6JCj fantasy leagues pic.twitter.com/BhE3pDJKH1— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 6, 2016
Let me know what you think: feel free to comment and tell me your thoughts!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)