Saturday, September 16, 2017

Start & Trade: Week 1

As posted on Twitter, the "Start & Trade" series of articles start this week!

These articles are meant to be immediately helpful: each one will identify at least three (3) players who can easily be obtained in 8, 10, or 12-team fantasy leagues.

Then, we'll tell you why to start those players (for immediate fantasy success/impact).

Finally, we'll recommend some easy trade targets for the next week.

Good luck!



James White (New England Patriots)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB28
Week 1 Matchup: Chiefs, 9.8 points (per ESPN)
Week 2 Matchup: @ Saints

White is one of five possible Patriots' RB's who could be given opportunities in any given game, and that kind of system is extremely difficult to predict in terms of fantasy football.
However, if the first game of the season (and the entirety of last season) give us any hints, it looks like Gillislee will be the goal-line 'back, replacing Blount's role, and White will continue to be the pass-catching 'back.
Why is that important?
Well, with Julian Edelman out for the year, and with Malcolm Mitchell having been injured early in the season, there are suddenly targets to spread around to other pass-catchers.
Given that many of Brady's WR's now specialize in intermediate or deep-field work (and also given that Brady's downfield arm strength isn't spectacular), White will likely become his favorite dump-off target.

This probably won't send White skyrocketing in value to an RB2, but it may provide him with a nice floor in PPR leagues, and his ceiling will probably be shown against a terrible Saints defense this coming week.
Given this matchup, White is a suggested starter this week.

Take advantage of early-season panic: after he has a big game this week (projecting 11-15 PPR points), see if it's possible to trade for an RB with better long-term value, like Isaiah Crowell of the Browns.
Crowell plays Baltimore's stout defense this week, and his value will likely be at its lowest point of the season: use that opportunity to get him cheap.

Kerwynn Williams (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB35
Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 8.2 points (per ESPN)
Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

David Johnson was the consensus #1 overall pick this year, and is now expected to be out until Christmas.
Johnson's immediate fill-in will be Williams, so he will have some value if you were able to pick him up this week, possibly even functioning as an RB2.
However, Arians has already stated that there may something of a committee approach taken here, and that would mean other RB's may get significant touches (Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson, etc.).
So even though Williams will likely have a great week against the Colts and their putrid defense, he probably won't maintain season-long RB2 value.

Use his projected big game against the Colts, alongside early-season over-thinking, to make a trade for someone like Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers.
McCaffrey had an okay opening game against the 49ers, but will play the Bills this week, and despite their mess of an offense, they do still have a solid defense.

This should push McCaffrey's immediate value down, and may present an opportunity to get a player who will rebound quickly with a matchup the next week against the Saints.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Wide Receiver
Positional Ranking: WR16
Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 15.3 points (per ESPN)
Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

Nelson had a good fantasy week for his first game of the season with 5 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown, and he represents the Cardinals' only deep threat.

Nelson should have a great week this week: John Brown is out, so he should have many more opportunities, and the Colts defense is just awful, as stated before.
Though he has flashed talent before, he has also been wildly inconsistent in fantasy football and real life, and Palmer's declining accuracy makes this a real issue as a season-long prospect.

Play this matchup to your advantage: with two weeks of top-20 (or possibly higher) fantasy scores, make a package trade for a player who has much more long-term value.
This could include players like T.Y. Hilton, Terrelle Pryor, or Doug Baldwin.

All these players have current situations which could keep them from over-achieving at this point, but they are all projected to improve significantly over the course of the season.