Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

A Review of the 2024 NFL Draft (and the Seahawks)

The 2024 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror.

For many NFL fans, these are the days of hope; the days when your team improved, and you are ready to compete for a Super Bowl RIGHT NOW.

For others, this is confirmation that your team sucks; that your front office needs to change, and that your coaching staff doesn't know what they are doing.

Let's recap some general takeaways from the draft, and then dive into some specifics as they pertain to the #Seahawks.

DRAFT TAKEAWAYS

1. Your team improved, but did they improve as much as everyone else?

To be honest, the right question to ask after the NFL Draft is not "Did X team get better?".

The right question to ask is "Did X team improve more than the other teams improved?".

And that is a far more difficult question to answer, though the answer is far more revealing.

In my view, the teams that improved their roster more than other teams included the Cardinals, Bills, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Rams, Eagles, Steelers, and Commanders.

The teams that improved their rosters the least (in comparison to other teams) included the Titans, Giants, Lions, and Patriots.

That doesn't mean they had "bad" drafts, but simply that the amount they improved was less than the other teams: that can create less sustainability for a playoff contender (like the Lions), or create a more difficult path to contention for already-struggling teams (like the Patriots).

2. Your team drafted some good players, but were they as good as other players they could have drafted?

Value propositions are tough to discuss well, because it causes us to second-guess ourselves and every decision we make; however, we all know that tradeoffs are real.

For example, as we'll look at later, the Seahawks drafted Byron Murphy, and thus gave up the opportunity to draft Troy Fautanu.

By doing "X", you no longer had the opportunity to do "Y".

The Eagles are masterminds of this kind of logic on draft day: somehow they drafted CB Cooper DeJean at #40 (when he was a 1st rounder on many/most draft boards), and essentially got two first-round talents this year, while still collecting extra picks in next year's draft.

The Steelers also did well this year: C Zach Frazier is likely an immediate starter, and was a borderline 1st-round pick on many/most draft boards. Pairing him with Fautanu is a huge, tangible upgrade to their offensive line.

However, our neighborhood Seahawks may represent a negative example in this scenario.

In the 4th round, they drafted ILB Tyrice Knight at #118, who was not ranked on either PFF's prospect list or Daniel Jeremiah's "Top 150" list, and was projected to go in the 6th round by Lance Zierlein.

Meanwhile, they passed on new Steelers' OG Mason McCormick (top 101 on both PFF and Jeremiah's lists, projected in the 5th by Zierlein) and new 49ers' S Malik Mustapha (top 148 on both PFF and Jeremiah's lists, projected in the 4th by Zierlein).

Will that be the right decision? Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell.

3. We will never have all the information that a GM does, but that doesn't mean they make good decisions.

Every year, the qualifier is made that "we don't have all the info" when a player falls down in the draft due to undisclosed injury or personal concerns.

And every year, GM's make fun of people who try to predict how the draft will play out or question why a GM would pick a specific player at a specific time.

That doesn't mean that general managers always make the right decisions.

We don't have to look farther than last year's first overall pick to see what we're talking about, when Bryce Young was selected ahead of CJ Stroud.

Or when Travon Walker was selected ahead of Aidan Hutchinson in 2022. Would the GM's make the same pick today?

Or when Micah Parsons went at #12 overall in 2021. Today, wouldn't San Francisco rather have selected Parsons there at their original pick selection than traded away three first round selections to move up and select Trey Lance?

Having more information does not necessarily equate to making better decisions.

SEAHAWKS DRAFT ANALYSIS

R1, #16 OVR - DL Byron Murphy II

As the Huskies fans and OL advocates sat on their couches waiting for Troy Fautanu to hear his name called on Thursday night, mixed emotions accompanied the resulting selection.

That's not to say that Murphy was the wrong choice; in fact, given how the draft panned out, this was potentially the best choice they could have made.

If, as reports say, they only way they could have received a late 2nd round pick in a trade back was to trade back to somewhere around #25, would you have done it?

Would you have said that Jordan Morgan or Graham Barton or Tyler Guyton have blue-chip potential?

In the end, Murphy is a 92nd percentile NFL athlete at DL, with an NGS score that is top-3 among all DL selected in the past three drafts, and was the top DT on most boards: this is a win-the-trenches pick.

R3, #81 OVR - OG Christian Haynes

This is the pick that almost all of those in the Seahawks' sphere can appreciate.

A true Guard that looks the part, was rated well, and is pretty favorable overall?

Not many are complaining here: a 91st percentile NFL athlete at OG, with a positive NGS score, and the 3rd overall IOL prospect per PFF.

It doesn't get much better in terms of value or need.

TRADE (#102 and #235 for #121, #136, and #207)

I felt this trade value was extremely fair, especially given how many quality prospects were left on the board (30+ in my book): it appeared that the Seahawks had a chance to do something special here and pick two solid contributors at #118 and #121, plus have better dart throws in the 5th and 6th rounds.

R4, #118 - ILB Tyrice Knight

This was disappointing.

I think I understand the pick: McDonald clearly has a preferred body type at ILB (6'0-6'2, and 227-237 lbs), and this may be the only ILB on the board who clearly fit those preferences well.

Also, this is a fourth round pick, and so reaching on this kind of a pick has a limited potential negative consequence.

Nevertheless, the Steelers selecting Mason McCormick with the next pick stung: he was a 3rd-round value on my board, and I would have loved for them to have doubled down on the trenches even further, especially since Knight would likely have been available with one of the next two pick selections.

Knight is a very good athlete (7.41 RAS), and NGS likes him as well (scoring at 71), but this was not a value pick: this was a positional need pick.

R4, #121 - TE AJ Barner

I love this player... but continue to feel like this was an average pick.

Barner is what I love to see in a quality inline TE: big frame (6'6/251), big program (Michigan), and great run-blocking grade (81.3, best in class, per PFF).

He can catch the ball, and has been targeted over 100 times in the past three collegiate seasons, so he can be used that way as well.

He ended up with a 8.70 RAS and a 67 NGS score, so he is VERY athletic and had average production.

Barner will be a player I keep my eye on.

R5, #136 - CB Nehemiah Prichett

Measuring in at 6'0/190, the next Seahawks' selection had an RAS of 7.79 and an NGS score of 72.

This is an athletic, productive corner.

Why, then, don't I like this pick at all?

First, the value vs. need conversation: I would love to have seen an entire draft focused on building the trenches, and Sedrick Van Pran, a likely starting Center, went just a few picks later.

Also, PFF ranked Pritchett as their 25th overall CB in this class, with a concerning 52.4 run support grade, ranking in the bottom tiers.

I like CB's who are physical and can hit: I'm not certain that is who Prichett is.

R6, #179 - OG Sataoa Laumea

An OT/OG out of Utah, Sataoa is a multi-year starter at Right Tackle who is probably apt to play Guard in the NFL (due to big power and slow feet, per PFF).

His measurements are good (6'4/319), and his RAS, though incomplete, would have ranked him somewhere around the 70th percentile athletically (among NFL Guards).

I really don't have a problem with this pick, though I would have preferred WR Malik Washington or DL Tyler Davis at this point.

R6, #192 - CB DJ James

This was a good value pick.

The Seahawks probably weren't targeting James at this point, since it is rare to double-dip from the same school and draft class, let alone from the same position within that context.

Most likely, James was the best player left on their board by quite a bit, and they just had to take him.

These are my favorite kind of selections, at least in concept.

He is smaller than his earlier counterpart by 15 pounds, and isn't the same tier of athlete, but was graded significantly higher in all coverage areas than Pritchett (except for completion percentage).

We will see if he beats out Pritchett on the depth charts this summer and fall, but I wouldn't be surprised.

R6, #207 - OT Michael Jerrell

Jerrell represents a complete unknown to most internet scouts, and a complete unknown to most grading systems as well; thus, we have limited info.

What data we do have comes from RAS: this is a 6'4/309 Tackle who is probably a Guard at the NFL level, and he is nearly a 93rd percentile athlete among NFL Guards.

I would have loved to have heard how Schneider came to the decision to draft this kid.

Meanwhile, I would have drafted OG Christian Mahogany from Boston College.

Who is the better selection years down the road? No one knows at this time.

CONCLUSION

Day 1 and 2 of the Seahawks' draft are being universally praised, while Day 3 is being nearly universally questioned.

I'm in alignment to a large extent.

I'm not certain that the values were there on Day 3... it appears to include multiple reaches, and possibly some fits that don't align with play style.

However, we could also learn that these players are exactly what the new head coach wants and needs on his team, and I would be happy to be wrong.

My redraft of the Seahawks draft is below, for accountability:
#16 - DL Byron Murphy
#81 - OG Christian Haynes
#118 - OG Mason McCormick
#121 - TE AJ Barner
#136 - C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
#179 - DT Tyler Davis
#192 - CB DJ James
#207 - QB Michael Pratt

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Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Part 2 of "The Seahawks: How Did We Get Here?"

TRADES


John Schneider has never been one to stay away from big trades.

That doesn't mean that he has been successful in those kind of endeavors.

In fact, going through these may be downright disheartening for some fans.

So there's the heads-up, and here we go into the big trades.

These are the trades that involved at least a 3rd round pick in terms of draft capital.

PERCY HARVIN

Traded Away:
2013 1st Round Pick, #25 - (CB Xavier Rhodes)
2013 7th Round Pick, #214 - (G Travis Bond)
2014 3rd Round Pick, #96 - (RB Jerick McKinnon)

Received:
WR Percy Harvin

JIMMY GRAHAM

Traded Away:
2015 1st Round Pick, #31 - (LB, Stephone Anthony)
OC Max Unger

Received:
2015 4th Round Pick, #112 - (Traded)
TE Jimmy Graham

SHELDON RICHARDSON

Traded Away:
2018 2nd Round Pick, #49 - (Traded)
2018 7th Round Pick, #235 - (Traded)
WR Jermaine Kearse

Received:
2018 7th Round Pick, #226 - (Traded)
DT Sheldon Richardson

DUANE BROWN

Traded Away:
2018 3rd Round Pick, #80 - (OT Martinas Rankin)
2019 2nd Round Pick, #54 - (CB Lonnie Johnson)

Received:
2018 5th Round Pick, #141 - (LB Shaquem Griffin)
LT Duane Brown

FRANK CLARK

Traded Away:
2019 3rd Round Pick, #84 - (DT Khalen Saunders)
DE Frank Clark

Received:
2019 1st Round Pick, #29 - (DL LJ Collier)
2019 3rd Round Pick, #92 - (Traded)
2020 2nd Round Pick, #64 - (Traded)

JADEVEON CLOWNEY

Traded Away:
2020 3rd Round Pick, #91 - (Traded)
LB Barkevious Mingo
LB Jake Martin

Received:
DE Jadeveon Clowney

JAMAL ADAMS

Traded Away:
2021 1st Round Pick, #23 - (Traded)
2021 3rd Round Pick, #86 - (Traded)
2022 1st Round Pick

Received:
2022 4th Round Pick
SS Jamal Adams

RUSSELL WILSON

Traded Away:
2022 4th Round Pick
QB Russell Wilson

Received:
2022 1st Round Pick
2022 2nd Round Pick
2022 5th Round Pick
2023 1st Round Pick
2023 2nd Round Pick
QB Drew Lock
TE Noah Fant
DT Shelby Harris

Taken as a whole, it seems like John doesn't excel at the "big move". None of the moves listed above escape criticism, except perhaps the Duane Brown and/or Frank Clark trades, and even Frank's could be criticized for what they did with what they got. We don't know for sure how the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade will ultimately look, except that it is the ONE instance where, perhaps, the criticism may need to be leveled at someone else.



If I were to point out some basic flaws in the "big trade" approach, it would appear that each big trade (with the exception of Duane Brown and possibly Frank Clark) was a poor decision from a team-building or team philosophy standpoint.

In Percy Harvin, Pete Carroll wanted a game-breaking offensive weapon with explosive abilities and touchdown potential with every touch. He got an injury-prone, locker-room disaster who prevented the team from re-signing a valuable WR in Golden Tate.

In Jimmy Graham, Pete wanted a massive target who could function as the team's WR1 and provided a consistent red-zone threat. He got a soft tight end who couldn't (or wouldn't) block, either in-line or split out wide, that negatively impacted the run game, and spent money at a non-premium position for a player who didn't bring the physicality that the team's philosophy demanded.

In Sheldon Richardson, Pete wanted a potential game-wreaker on the defensive line who had size, talent, and nastiness. He got a streaky, low-work ethic, non-scheme fit.

In Jamal Adams, Pete wanted a physical presence on the back end with a leader's mentality, speed, hit power, and the ability to play all phases of the game, including run defense, pass rush, and coverage. He got a player who plays an unsustainable style, hasn't stayed on the field, who is a positionless hybrid player playing an important and defined role with clear rules in the PC system, and whose primary weakness is supposed to be the position's primary strength.

What About Russ?

The Russell Wilson trade is of an entirely different variety, and shouldn't be viewed in entirely the same light as these "big trades". This is a BLOCKBUSTER trade. Receiving two firsts and two seconds is a good starting place for a Pro Bowl-caliber QB, but seems low. As I mentioned earlier, that may or may not actually be John Schneider's fault at all, but may entirely be due to Russell's contract and choices. If we assume that JS isn't entirely at fault for the lower draft capital, we can at least look at the players received in the package.

First, the Seahawks needed a QB. Period. Drew Lock is a QB. End of that discussion. He will be the backup or one-year bridge QB. Second, Shelby Harris is an excellent DT who has had "Elite" grades twice in the past four years, per PFF, and has never had a below-average year. That's something every team needs, and Pete's teams can definitely use. My struggle is with Noah Fant. He's a physically enticing prospect with athletic ability for days... but has received terrible PFF grades as a blocker every year in the league, and that's easy to see on film. Pete has proven time and time again that he does NOT need a star tight end, and that having one actually harms the system, possibly distracting from the main goals of his philosophy. Great blocking tight ends with soft hands have functioned best in his systems: think Zach Miller from the Seahawks' 2011-2014 squads, or even the healthy version of Will Dissly from recent years.

I would much rather have added a top young WR like Jerry Jeudy to this deal, especially since the Seahawks have reportedly been looking for another young wide receiver to round out their WR corps. However, realistically, I would have rather had additional draft picks. It is not too much to say that Wilson should have commanded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds alongside Lock and Harris, and that's still probably underselling it. If there's anything I could say to Pete Carroll and John Schneider as we continue along this journey, it would be: "Don't compromise your philosophy.". In this case, I mean very clearly: stop pursuing primarily pass-catching tight ends. They are not as important to your system as men who get physical and block well, even if they aren't quite as fast or impressive after the catch.

Moderate Trades

Schneider, however, has proven to be much more masterful when it comes to the moderate trade.

Check this out: these are players who became Seahawks for later draft picks (4th-7th rounds) or other compensation.

Marshawn Lynch
Kellen Winslow
Sealver Siliga
D'Anthony Smith
Terrelle Pryor
Marcus Burley
Mohammed Seisay
Kelcie McCray
Dewey McDonald
DJ Alexander
Matt Tobin
Justin Coleman
Isaiah Battle
Marcus Johnson
Brett Hundley
Shalom Luani
Darrell Daniels
Jacob Hollister
Parry Nickerson
Quandre Diggs
Quinton Dunbar
Carlos Dunlap
Gabe Jackson
John Reid
Sidney Jones

Since most of these trades involved minimal trade compensation, and some ended up costing nothing at all (due to conditional picks being sent), the misses don't matter nearly as much, but the hits stick out like a sore thumb (in a good way, of course).

Marshawn is a Seattle legend. Diggs is a Pro Bowler who many fans want back. Dunlap is a fantastic defensive end, though he is late in his career at this point. Jackson is a starting-caliber NFL guard. Jones is a starting-quality NFL cornerback who may be back with the Seahawks at some point as well. Even guys like Coleman and Hollister were starters at their positions who had some level of success with the Seahawks for a minimal price.

Will PCJS bring enough to this team to make it a contender in a short period of time?

Starting an off-season by saying goodbye to your star QB is definitely one way to make a splash; now Seahawks fans hope that there are more major moves in the making, because this team is hard to envision as being better or more successful minus Houdini at quarterback.

A Brief Goodbye

For now, we thank Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner (who was informed of his release from the team earlier today) for their contributions to the Seahawks and the city of Seattle.

Thank you, Russ, for inspiring a love of football in many young fans, for being the face of our state's success, and for bringing the city of Seattle its first championship.

Thank you, Bobby, for being a true class act, on and off the field. Thank you for being a person of character, for your contributions to this city, and for leading well.

Good luck to you both, and God bless.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Part 1 of "The Seahawks: How Did We Get Here?"

THE DRAFT

Through the 2010, 2011, and 2012 draft classes, the Seahawks built an empire.

Many of these players were starters for years, and many made the pro bowl.

At least half of these can be classified as successes, and the "bust rate" is well under 50%.

Bolded players were elected to a Pro Bowl while with the Seahawks.

2010
1 - Russell Okung
1 - Earl Thomas
2 - Golden Tate
4 - Walter Thurmond
4 - EJ Wilson
5 - Kam Chancellor
6 - Anthony McCoy
7 - Dexter Davis
7 - Jameson Konz

2011
1 - James Carpenter
3 - John Moffitt
4 - KJ Wright
4 - Kris Durham
5 - Richard Sherman
5 - Mark LeGree
6 - Byron Maxwell
7 - Lazarius Levingston
7 - Malcolm Smith

2012
1 - Bruce Irvin
2 - Bobby Wagner
3 - Russell Wilson
4 - Robert Turbin
4 - Jaye Howard
5 - Korey Toomer
6 - Jeremy Lane
6 - Winston Guy
7 - JR Sweezy
7 - Greg Scruggs

That doesn't include undrafted players who were signed to the team during this time, like Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette, etc.

Even players who didn't make the Pro Bowl were impactful: Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond, James Carpenter, Malcolm Smith, Bruce Irvin, Robert Turbin, Jeremy Lane, JR Sweezy, and many more drafted and undrafted players during this time frame started games and had successful stints with the Hawks.

One notable caveat: the Seahawks had earlier picks during these years, as well as multiple 1sts.

Then something changed.

From 2013-2018, the Seahawks' empire stagnated.

2013
2 - Christine Michael
3 - Jordan Hill
4 - Chris Harper
5 - Jesse Williams
5 - Tharold Simon
5 - Luke Willson
6 - Spencer Ware
7 - Ryan Seymour
7 - Ty Powell
7 - Jared Smith
7 - Michael Bowie

2014
2 - Paul Richardson
2 - Justin Britt
4 - Cassius Marsh
4 - Kevin Norwood
4 - Kevin Pierre-Louis
5 - Jimmy Staten
6 - Garrett Scott
6 - Eric Pinkins
7 - Kiero Small

2015
2 - Frank Clark
3 - Tyler Lockett
4 - Terry Poole
4 - Mark Glowinski
5 - Tye Smith
6 - Obum Gwacham
6 - Kristjan Sokoli
7 - Ryan Murphy

2016
1 - Germain Ifedi
2 - Jarran Reed
3 - CJ Prosise
3 - Nick Vannett
3 - Rees Odhiambo
5 - Quinton Jefferson
5 - Alex Collins
6 - Joey Hunt
7 - Kenny Lawler
7 - Zac Brooks

2017
2 - Malik McDowell
2 - Ethan Pocic
3 - Shaquill Griffin
3 - Lano Hill
3 - Nazair Jones
3 - Amara Darboh
4 - Tedric Thompson
6 - Michael Tyson
6 - Justin Senior
7 - David Moore
7 - Chris Carson

2018
1 - Rashaad Penny
3 - Rasheem Green
4 - Will Dissly
5 - Shaquem Griffin
5 - Tre Flowers
5 - Michael Dickson
5 - Jamarco Jones
6 - Jacob Martin
7 - Alex McGough


It's hard to even read through some of these years.

The 2013 draft produced Willson as a consistent contributor... and that's about it.

The 2014 draft had some role players and names that stuck around for a while, the best of which may be Justin Britt (a league-average or slightly-above-average Center), but did not produce any Pro Bowlers for the Seahawks (does Pro Bowl alternate count?).

2015 is probably the best of the rest since Frank Clark and Tyler Lockett have had tangible achievements and are still producing in the league, but Clark did not get a second contract with the Seahawks and never reached a Pro Bowl with them either. Glowinski still plays in the league.

2016 was the Ifedi year: a failed experiment at RG/RT. Jarran Reed was a success at DT, but once again, barely earned a year past his rookie contract with the team. Though other role players have played (and continue to play) parts with different iterations of the Hawks (Vannett/Jefferson/Collins/Hunt), this draft didn't contribute any team cornerstones.

No Seahawks fan speaks of Malik McDowell, but the 2017 draft class has become notorious due to that selection. Griffin was a quality starter at CB who didn't earn a second contract, and while Pocic/Jones/Thompson/Moore all played bit roles, it's Chris Carson who stands out here, though his injuries will always leave us wondering what could have been.

The 2018 draft brought another sad realization from the 1st round in Rashaad Penny, who has barely seen the field through the years, while Green/Dissly/Griffin/Flowers/Jones have all been role players at points in time. Dickson is the lone Pro Bowler so far from this class. The punter.



In the present, it is still too early to tell if many of the following players will be long-term successes.
There are questions in terms of fit, scheme, and goals for many of these players.

2019
1 - LJ Collier
2 - Marquise Blair
2 - DK Metcalf
3 - Cody Barton
4 - Gary Jennings Jr
4 - Phil Haynes
4 - Ugo Amadi
5 - Ben Burr-Kirven
6 - Travis Homer
6 - Demarcus Christmas
7 - John Ursua

2020
1 - Jordyn Brooks
2 - Darrell Taylor
3 - Damien Lewis
4 - Colby Parkinson
4 - DeeJay Dallas
5 - Alton Robinson
6 - Freddie Swain
7 - Stephen Sullivan

2021
2 - D'Wayne Eskridge
4 - Tre Brown
6 - Stone Forsythe

Going quickly through the picks from this list (that are still with the team), there are reasons for optimism.

Metcalf stands out like a sore thumb in this group: he is a bonafide superstar WR.

Blair has flashed at times as a quality secondary piece, but hasn't been healthy enough to be consistent.
Barton is a backup LB.
Haynes is a backup OL.
Amadi is a quality backup secondary player.
BBK is out for the year with a bad injury.
Homer is a PS-level RB.
Ursua is a PS-level WR.
Brooks is an average starting LB.
Taylor has flashed talent occasionally, but we just don't know what he is or could be yet.
Lewis is an average starting OG, and could be an above-average OG.
Parkinson has done nothing of note.
Dallas is a backup RB.
Robinson is similar to Taylor in that he has flashed occasionally, but there's more unknown than known.
Swain is a fine/good 4th WR.
Sullivan has done nothing of note.
Eskridge/Brown/Forsythe don't have enough time with the team for us to know anything yet.

Of those, reasonable 53-man roster pieces next season potentially could be Metcalf, Blair, Brooks, Taylor, Lewis, Dallas, Robinson, Swain, Eskridge, and Brown.

Now imagine this.

2013
2 - TE Travis Kelce (1 pick after Michael)
3 - DB Tyrann Mathieu
4 - OL JC Tretter
5 - DB Micah Hyde

2014
2 - WR Davante Adams (8 picks after Richardson)
3 - OG Gabe Jackson (17 picks after Britt)
5 - OL Corey Linsley
7 - DT  Shamar Stephen
7 - DE Shelby Harris

2015
5 - DT Grady Jarrett
5 - WR Stefon Diggs
6 - DB Quandre Diggs
6 - WR/TE Darren Waller
7 - OT Trent Brown

2016
2 - DT Chris Jones (6 picks after Ifedi)
2 - RB Derrick Henry
3 - OG Joe Thuney
3 - DB Justin Simmons
4 - QB Dak Prescott
5 - DT Matthew Ioannidis

There are many, many more, but since hindsight is 20/20, this is an entirely hypothetical exercise, and its usefulness has its limits.

We are simply addressing star players who were taken after many of the picks that PCJS made in multiple drafts, some of which ended up on past or current Seahawks teams (Jackson is the team's current starting guard, and Diggs is possibly the one bright spot of the current iteration's secondary).

The major caveat here is that most teams passed on these players multiple times, and if they had a chance to redo their drafts, none would look the same.

Still, the bust rate from 2013-2018 is... disheartening, to say the least.

Given that the massive success of three total draft years (2010-2012) developed the core of a team that went to back-to-back Super Bowls and the playoffs more often than not, it doesn't take more than a few great drafts to put a team into contention, as long as the other factors around that team are in place.

The biggest questions are:
(1) Have PCJS been drafting the best talent available?
(2) Have PCJS been drafting within their core philosophies?
(3) Have PCJS been considering quantity over quality?

After looking through the results of the last few years, what do you think?
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Sunday, May 21, 2017

Stock Down: Five Quarterbacks (Whose Situations Are Generally Terrible)

The NFL Draft is done, and teams are celebrating their new team additions.

Some teams struck gold, some teams only struck fool's gold, and some teams struck out entirely.

Today, we're looking at five quarterbacks whose situations are generally terrible for fantasy football purposes this year: wait to draft them till the later rounds, or don't draft them at all.

Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: David Johnson, Andre Ellington
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Chad Williams
TE: Jermaine Gresham

When talking about Palmer, there is a great divide between who he has been as a fantasy football draft choice in past years, and who he is today.
For example, after a fantastic fantasy season in 2015 (5th highest-scoring QB), he fell back down to earth last year (19th highest-scoring QB) due, in part, to his age beginning to catch up to him: this can also be seen in his completion percentage, which was his lowest since 2011 (61%).
We've seen this before with big names (Peyton Manning being the most recent), and with reports coming out of confidence declining in the Cardinal's quarterback situation from inside and outside the organization, it may be best to stay away.

Additionally, for fantasy football purposes, David Johnson will again be the focus of this offense, and since Palmer's arm may be weakening, he likely won't be hitting those deep balls that led to his stellar 2015 fantasy season.

Sam Bradford (Minnesota Vikings)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs, Michael Floyd, Adam Thielen, Laquon Treadwell
TE: Kyle Rudolph

Sam Bradford is the epitome of a solid talent who never really reaches his potential, in this case due to a lengthy (and constant) battle with injuries.
Statistically, last season was the best of his career: he set personal bests in passing yards (3,877), led the league in completion percentage (71.6%), had his highest yards-per-attempt to date (7.02 YPA), and achieved a new best Passer Rating (99.3).
Nonetheless, that didn't translate into a good fantasy season (23rd highest-scoring QB), he has only played in a full 16-game season twice in his career (2010, 2012), and the three-headed running back rotation this year will likely take the focus away from the passing game.

Also, as an important additional detail, his o-line isn't looking great: watch the film from last year, and realize there may not be many improvements in that area at all.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Danny Woodhead, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Lorenzo Taliaferro
WR: Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman
TE: Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta, Maxx Williams

The Ravens are often regarded as an every-year competitor around the NFL, but this isn't looking good at all.
Flacco may have finally broken the 4,000 passing yards mark last year (4,317 yds) and set a new personal best in completion percentage (64.9%), but that can't make up for his pathetic supporting cast on offense.
Think about it: at running back, their leading pass-catching back is an oft-injured 30-something who has missed the majority of both the 2014 and 2016 seasons due to injury.
Their leading 2-down back is a cast-off from the Cleveland Browns (yikes).
The Ravens' top two wide receivers consistently struggle with drops, and no one knows who the other ones are (name one without looking them up, I dare you).

Finally, no one in fantasy trusts Watson or Pitta to stay healthy, and Williams has yet to show signs of life.
Stay away from Flacco in fantasy: this ain't his year.

Barkley/Hoyer/Beathard (San Francisco 49ers)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower, Joe Williams, Kapri Bibbs
WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Jeremy Kerley, Bruce Ellington
TE: Vance McDonald

Everyone knows the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, and that's fine: in fact, if you're a fan of the team, you may be quite pleased with the draft results, which were impressive to say the least.
The issue from a fantasy football perspective is that it focused almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball, leaving the offensive shelves bare.
At the wideout position, Garcon is a 30-year-old #2 receiver, Goodwin is a one-trick-pony deep threat speedster, and Kerley/Ellington essentially play the same slot role.
McDonald is a good tight end, but he was not worth his contract extension (5 years/$35 million).

The strength of this offense is their running back stable, so look for the team to almost ignore whoever is under center in order to pound the ball more this season.

Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Todd Gurley, Lance Dunbar
WR: Tavon Austin, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp
TE: Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee

I feel sorry for Goff: his supporting cast reads like a McDonald's catering menu at a black-tie affair.

Everything about the offense here is hurting: Goff is a good QB, and Gurley is a top-tier talent at RB, but they can't stay upright with the poor O-line in front of them.
Additionally, there are no true threats at the other skill positions: Austin is a punt returner playing wideout, Woods has never passed 700 yards receiving in his career, and Kupp is a rookie in the form of one of this year's third-round picks.
Also, Everett, though he was the Rams' top pick this year, is a rookie joining a recent 4th-round pick to complete this inexperienced tight end stable.


Don't look for much success on offense this year, and Goff should likely not be on any fantasy roster.
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Sunday, April 30, 2017

Seahawks 2017 Draft Class

We’ve just experienced three days of pure off-season football fun, and the Seahawks walked away with eleven picks.
ELEVEN PICKS.
Given that, let’s see what is being said about these guys, and see which areas the Hawks improved in the most.
2nd Round (Pick 35) - Malik McDowell, DT/DE
“Has similar physical traits and abilities of Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, but may not share their football character. McDowell lacked production along the interior and could benefit from a move to a defensive end spot in a 4-3 or 3-4 front. McDowell is raw, but when he flashes, it can be blinding. McDowell is an explosive, ascending prospect with All-Pro potential if he grows into his body and takes the necessary coaching.”
“McDowell played both inside at defensive tackle and outside at defensive end for the Spartans. McDowell’s frame and playing style are better suited to him playing an edge defender role at the NFL level. When he is lined up inside at defensive tackle he wins with quickness or by stunting into another gap but McDowell’s length and agility are better served out on the edge. He can also use more of his pass-rush moves when lined up outside including his most consistent long-arm stab pass-rush move and his counters off it. McDowell’s three years of production and positional versatility will intrigue a lot of teams.”
“He’s got a lot of flexibility, he’s played all across the board. He’s been a defensive end, he’s been a nose tackle, he’s been a three technique, which bodes well for us. We see a lot of flexibility in him, he’s a unique player, he’s a very young man, 20 years old, who has a lot of growing. We think he has great upside, he had a fantastic sophomore season that we weighted heavily and we think we have a really special player and we’re really happy to get him. Had a good visit when he came in, all that, and it paid off.”
2nd Round (Pick 58) - Ethan Pocic, C
“Flexible, natural athlete with starting experience all along the LSU offensive line. Scouts say Pocic has the intelligence teams look for from a center and is highly regarded by LSU coaches and teammates in the locker room. Pocic is an excellent "work-up" blocker with the ability to thrive in a running game that operates in space, but his lack of power will produce some extremely challenging matchups for him at times.”
“Pocic does a lot of things well and his ability to make difficult reach blocks make him a fit in any scheme. He’s sound in pass protection and even dabbled at offensive tackle to add some versatility, though he’ll get a shot to stick at center where he looks like one of the best the draft has to offer.”

“We think he’s the most flexible guy in the draft. He started a lot at center but he’s played at guard and he’s played tackle. He’s been a primary player for them in a great conference and just been steady as a rock. Really smart, intelligent, tough guy. Long, tall, he has all the right elements and the background was so versatile that we just thought that was a great opportunity. We really were hoping, there weren’t many offensive linemen in the draft as you’ve noticed that already, and we just thought he could fit into a number of spots and really help us out. We’ll see him at guard and tackle, knowing he can play center.”

3rd Round (Pick 90) - Shaquill Griffin, CB
“Griffin plays the game with an aggressive tilt both in coverage and in his run support. Griffin has good ball skills with a closing burst to challenge throws, but his anticipation is just average and he may not be able to play off of receivers and still be as effective with his ball production. Because he lacks long speed but is an effective tackler, he could be targeted by a defense favoring Cover-2 coverage.”

“Griffin is another player who is likely to see his draft position lowered by what is a deep cornerback class. He ticks all the boxes teams are looking for in an athlete, with the size and raw athleticism that teams will love, but there will be some concern that he struggled as much as he did against Michigan’s Darboh, a draft-eligible receiver. Despite that though, he is coming off an impressive season, and if he can be coached to play inside releases on routes better than he did in 2016, he has a lot to offer teams in the NFL.”

“I think he’s going to be a special teams guy for us, too. You’ll see him on the perimeter, holding up guys and change and be the gunner and all that kind of stuff. Really good motor and the speed, you just can’t deny that it’s really there. He’s a terrific athlete. I see him as an outside guy. We’ll start there and try to transition to our style of stuff. His ability to play the ball, really his ball sense too, we think he’ll be a really good fit.”

3rd Round (Pick 95) - Delano Hill, S
“Hill has the size and physical demeanor to get a quality look from a team as a box safety, but his lack of coverage quickness and ball production won't help his chances. Hill will have to open eyes on special teams and as a lights out, downhill tackler to become an NFL factor.”
“Hill is a unique prospect because all of his NFL Combine measurements are truly representative of his film. He ran an official 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and that solid straight-line speed is apparent from his reel. He measured out at 6-foot-1, 216 pounds, and he uses his size and natural strength well when attacking blockers at the line of scrimmage, as well as playing press coverage in the slot. There were some less-impressive numbers from Indianapolis, as well, and these too didn’t come as a surprise, given his film. He broad-jumped 9-foot-7, and had a short shuttle at 4.27 seconds; both of these figures illustrate his lack of elite change of direction and closing speed. While Hill isn’t a top-end athlete, his ability to tackle consistently and play in the box make him look like a potential NFL starter. Due to the strength of the safety class, he can probably be selected on day three, but teams looking for a strong safety capable of pressing from the slot, as well as playing the run, should have significant interest.”
“We know he can play safety. He’s played a lot and he’s very physical. He’s just right in the right framework of our style that we love to see. Tough and also, he’s played on the slot a lot, so he’s played kind of the nickel position quite a bit, which has shown the ability to cover receivers, which is good. As always, we’ll check our guys out see what the expanse of his play will bring us. We won’t be hesitant to see how he matches up with wide receivers. That’s a good thing for him, but there’s no question he can play safety. We would say strong and free, he looks more like a hitter, he’s really physical. Might be a little more like Kam [Chancellor] style, so we’ll see. He’s done everything their scheme showed, all of that, so it really was a good evaluation for us, we have a lot of hopes for this.”
3rd Round (Pick 102) - Nazair Jones, DT
“Phone booth defender who has good length and the power to fight for control at the point of attack. Jones' strength is his ability to play the run and he could be a physical fit for 3-4 teams looking to add a run defender to their linemen corps. His inability to get the quarterback will cap his draft slotting but he does have pro potential.”
“An effective run defender, Jones will have to carve out a niche for himself on early downs. He has a great feel for the run game and he uses his length well to keep blockers off his frame, and he can do so from multiple positions along the defensive line. He’s built like an old-school 3-4 defensive end though he can line up and have success at 3-, 4-, or 5-technique. The inability to build upon his disruptive pass-rushing grades in 2014 and 2015 leave some concern about his prospects as a three-down player, but at just 22 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and he remains a solid mid-round prospect at this stage.”
“Really fired up about that pick. John did a great job to nail him. He’s a big, if you look back at the guys we’ve had, we’ve had a lot of big three techniques. That‘s because we load up and play that running game in our division in particular. We’re hoping he’s going to fit that mold. You go back, you got some names that you can dig out that are big guys. He’s right there. Line of scrimmage guy, early down player, good technique guy, plays hard. Another young guy just coming into it, has amazing stories, as I’m sure you guys are already picking up on. We’re really excited about him. He really fits that role to kind of fit in the division, play that three technique, big and heavy. He’ll be able to play five technique as well, he’s really long and tall. We’re upping our depth and making it challenging and competitive. I think it was a great pick. I love it.”
3rd Round (Pick 106) - Amara Darboh, WR
“Darboh caught the attention of scouts from very early on in his final season at Michigan. Darboh's outstanding size will have some teams excited, but he needs to run well at the combine in order to be targeted as a "size/speed" prospect. He lacks the quickness and hands to make a living underneath, but has the physical traits and willingness to help as a blocker that could get teams to bite on the second day of the draft (Rounds 2-3). Scheme fit could determine whether he becomes a WR2 or just a guy fighting for snaps off the bench.”
“Darboh is a well-built, possession receiver with experience running the full route tree in a pro-style offense. He finished the 2016 season as one of the highest-graded run-blocking wide receivers in the country, which should allow him to earn immediate playing time on special teams at the NFL level. Darboh has the ability to develop into a starting outside receiver, but his lack of elite athleticism limits his upside.”
“He’s young in football and looks like a professional wide receiver. That’s probably the most amazing thing about his story. He’s got, we see him as a blue grit kid that has overcome a ton in his life. I’ve never met anybody from Iowa that I didn’t like, he was living in Des Moines, Iowa [laughing]. No, he’s really a good route runner, he’s got really good ball skills, he’ll block, he’ll play on teams. He’s one of those kids that just checks off all those boxes and there’s still a lot out there in front of him. He’s a very respectful, very articulate kid who has been through a ton.”
4th Round (Pick 111) - Tedric Thompson, SS
“Thompson in an instinctive cover safety with strong ball skills and a history of production during his time at Colorado. Lacks physicality to operate around the box, but his football intelligence and playmaking skills will get him drafted and could give him a shot at eventually starting.”
“Thompson is a safety that despite lacking top-end athletic measurable, is able to make up for it with great anticipation and awareness. His ball skills are every bit as outstanding as his stat line suggests, which makes him an interesting long-term study in terms of production vs. athletic capacity. With such a loaded class, his disappointing combine numbers are likely to push him to the middle rounds, but there’s a well-roundedness to his game that suggests he could develop into a starter.”
“Phenomenal ball skills.  I think he led the country in passes defensed.  He has great feet, coverage skills, competitor.  He’s got really good range, really good short area quickness.  He’s a really interesting guy; kind of a well-rounded dude. He’s a ball hog. That’s a big deal.  Not just the balls that he’s stolen, but the ones he’s knocked around, and he’s always around the football.  That’s a huge priority for us always.  It has to do with pass rush, too.  That’s why we started where we started with the draft.  That was a big consideration.”
6th Round (Pick 187) - Michael Tyson, FS
“Plays with pretty good football instincts and is competitive challenging the run, but his inconsistencies in deep coverage could cause teams to shy away from using him anywhere but near the line of scrimmage. Tyson has average safety skills and could benefit with more weight work if he has to become a full-time box safety with tight end coverage ability.”
N/A
“Mike Tyson basically fits the profile that we’ve been looking for since we’ve been here as a corner.  He’s a big, tough, aggressive guy that, based on what we’ve seen, has really good coverage skills.  He’s primarily played inside.  He played a lot of Nickel for them last year, he got his hands on a lot of balls.  He has great ball skills and really strong in run support. He played Nickel.  He was a cover guy inside, so you have to have pretty good feet to play inside.  Our hope is that he can be a press corner outside.”
6th Round (Pick 210) - Justin Senior, OL
“Senior has long arms and strong hands, but his lack of bend and inconsistent footwork could cripple his NFL cause if he doesn't improve them. Senior is a right tackle only who has three years of experience against talented, SEC defensive ends but he struggled badly at times in the Senior Bowl. His size could get him drafted, but he has some work to do before ever hitting an NFL field.”
“One of the more athletic tackles in the draft. Senior is going to need a complete re-tool of his pass-blocking technique. He also has a learning curve in understanding an NFL offense. Senior may not be a Day 1 starter but his physical ability will quickly make up for his learning curve and bad fundamentals. His versatility to play in any scheme and make any block will serve him well. His PFF grades were good, not great, at Mississippi State but in that offense and blocking schemes, he was their best player. Senior has a high ceiling and his physical tools and potential will probably lead to him being drafted ahead of most of the other offensive linemen entering the draft.”
“Justin had a much better junior year than he did a senior year.  A great kid, he’s from Montreal.  Very well spoken, very smart. Very, very good pass protector.  He got a little heavy for his senior year, and it’s probably something that we’re going to have to monitor here, when he gets in here, and that’s why he went so late.  He has a lot of tools to work with.  He just needs to decide if he wants to be a player or not. His junior year he played at 295 pounds, and his senior year he played about 315-317, something like that. Then, he continued to climb a little bit. He has a lot of talent, and did not have a great Senior Bowl week, and knows that I think this is a pretty cool wake-up call for him, being selected where he was selected.  Because, his scores with the coaches, the way they do it and everything, his pass protection is phenomenal. We’re going to move him on both sides.  He finished at right, we’re probably going to start him on the left side.”
7th Round (Pick 226) - David Moore, WR
N/A
N/A
“We think that David [Moore] is a stud of a receiver.  He’s 219 pounds and he runs really fast and he’s really physical.  We brought him out here for a visit, and spent a lot of time with him with our docs, and team psychologist and the rest of our staff.  He’s a really cool kid, very tough, very aggressive.  Like Pete said, he’s like 222 pounds, running 4.43.  Maybe 4.38, depends on the launch.”
7th Round (Pick 249) - Chris Carson, RB
“Carson is an immediate winner of the eyeball test, but that hasn't always been true of his running style. His shift from finesse to a more power-based running style fits his size and physical attributes and gives him a better shot of playing on Sundays. Carson is suited to a downhill attack that allows him to be the hammer rather than the nail, but he's unlikely to create for himself with elusiveness or speed. If Carson works out well, he could hear his name called on Day 3.”
N/A
“I was hanging on Chris Carson. He’s a guy that I found looking through the stuff late in the draft, kind of like we’ve done over the years.  I really love this guy because he is so physical and tough the way he ran.  You haven’t heard a whole lot about him, he hasn’t run the ball a lot.  But when he did, he, to me, made a great statement of his style and a style that we really covet. The second half of the season he really came on. I fell in love with how tough he is, and how aggressive he is.  That’s something that kind of falls in that same category, and we didn’t want to miss him.  There was a lot of activity around him, we thought, so we got him with that last shot, there. He’s really aggressive.  He hammers it.  I think you guys are really going to like him when you see him.”

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