Start & Trade: Week 1

As posted on Twitter, the "Start & Trade" series of articles start this week!

These articles are meant to be immediately helpful: each one will identify at least three (3) players who can easily be obtained in 8, 10, or 12-team fantasy leagues.

Then, we'll tell you why to start those players (for immediate fantasy success/impact).

Finally, we'll recommend some easy trade targets for the next week.

Good luck!

James White (New England Patriots)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB28

Week 1 Matchup: Chiefs, 9.8 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Saints

White is one of five possible Patriots' RB's who could be given opportunities in any given game, and that kind of system is extremely difficult to predict in terms of fantasy football.

However, if the first game of the season (and the entirety of last season) give us any hints, it looks like Gillislee will be the goal-line 'back, replacing Blount's role, and White will continue to be the pass-catching 'back.

Why is that important?
Well, with Julian Edelman out for the year, and with Malcolm Mitchell having been injured early in the season, there are suddenly targets to spread around to other pass-catchers.
Given that many of Brady's WR's now specialize in intermediate or deep-field work (and also given that Brady's downfield arm strength isn't spectacular), White will likely become his favorite dump-off target.

This probably won't send White skyrocketing in value to an RB2, but it may provide him with a nice floor in PPR leagues, and his ceiling will probably be shown against a terrible Saints defense this coming week.

Given this matchup, White is a suggested starter this week.

Take advantage of early-season panic: after he has a big game this week (projecting 11-15 PPR points), see if it's possible to trade for an RB with better long-term value, like Isaiah Crowell of the Browns.

Crowell plays Baltimore's stout defense this week, and his value will likely be at its lowest point of the season: use that opportunity to get him cheap.

Kerwynn Williams (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB35

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 8.2 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

David Johnson was the consensus #1 overall pick this year, and is now expected to be out until Christmas.

Johnson's immediate fill-in will be Williams, so he will have some value if you were able to pick him up this week, possibly even functioning as an RB2.

However, Arians has already stated that there may something of a committee approach taken here, and that would mean other RB's may get significant touches (Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson, etc.).

So even though Williams will likely have a great week against the Colts and their putrid defense, he probably won't maintain season-long RB2 value.

Use his projected big game against the Colts, alongside early-season over-thinking, to make a trade for someone like Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers.

McCaffrey had an okay opening game against the 49ers, but will play the Bills this week, and despite their mess of an offense, they do still have a solid defense.

This should push McCaffrey's immediate value down, and may present an opportunity to get a player who will rebound quickly with a matchup the next week against the Saints.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Wide Receiver
Positional Ranking: WR16

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 15.3 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

Nelson had a good fantasy week for his first game of the season with 5 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown, and he represents the Cardinals' only deep threat.

Nelson should have a great week this week: John Brown is out, so he should have many more opportunities, and the Colts defense is just awful, as stated before.
Though he has flashed talent before, he has also been wildly inconsistent in fantasy football and real life, and Palmer's declining accuracy makes this a real issue as a season-long prospect.

Play this matchup to your advantage: with two weeks of top-20 (or possibly higher) fantasy scores, make a package trade for a player who has much more long-term value.

This could include players like T.Y. Hilton, Terrelle Pryor, or Doug Baldwin.

All these players have current situations which could keep them from over-achieving at this point, but they are all projected to improve significantly over the course of the season.

Drafting Consistent Fantasy Options Using Differentials And Averages

"Consistency Differential", as it relates to fantasy football, is a term I've been working on for a few months now: it is not the only one, however.

It, and other terms, will become valuable tools in the upcoming season, and hopefully people in the fantasy community (besides myself) will find them interesting and helpful as well.

This article references fantasy points as scored by ESPN Standard Scoring.

STATISTICS TIME:
One interesting observation comes from comparing a player's top games (half of the games the player participated in, or his "average ceiling") versus his lowest-scoring games (the other half of the games the player participated in, or his "average floor").
The resulting differential shows the average variance between a poor showing and a great game: in other words, it is a "Consistency Differential" in fantasy football.
The smaller the resulting number, the more consistent the player's scores (on average).

EQUATION:
(the top half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) - (the bottom half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) = "Consistency Differential"

PROBLEM SOLVED:
When a player plays in an odd number of games, his median score (middle number) is divided in half, and each half of a player's fantasy scores (top and bottom) is divided by another half-game.

EXAMPLE 1:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in every game last year, so we take the average of his lowest scoring eight games and the average of his highest scoring eight games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
In his lowest scoring games, he scored 26.1, 25.1, 23.2, 17.8, 17.3, 17.1, 14.4, and 7.4 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
If we average those scores out, his average floor during the 2016 season was ~18.6 points per game.
Additionally, if we do the same thing for his highest scoring games (38.5, 35, 34.8, 33.6, 33.5, 30.1, 27.1, 26.8), we discover that his average ceiling during the 2016 season was ~32.4 points per game.
Finally, if we subtract his average floor from his average ceiling, we discover that his "Consistency Differential" is approximately 13.8: this represents the average difference between his average floor and average ceiling in games he played in during the 2016 NFL season.
In the end, David Johnson's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is ~13.8 point.

EXAMPLE 2:
Lamar Miller (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 14 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring seven games and the average of his highest scoring seven games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 7.
Lowest-scoring games: 13.8, 11.7, 9.7, 8.5, 8.3, 3.4, and 2.8 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.5 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 32.8, 19.3, 19.2, 16.9, 15.7, 14.7, and 14.3 points.
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~19 points per game.
Lamar Miller's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 10.5 points.

EXAMPLE 3:
Tevin Coleman (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 13 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring six games and the average of his highest scoring six games, then use the "Problem Solved" equation to divide the middle game out and determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 6.5.
Lowest-scoring games: 14.4, 9.3, 8.6, 6.3, 4.9, and 2.7 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.25 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 29.9, 26.3, 22.5, 19.5, 16.7, and 15.1 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~21.15 points per game.
Tevin Coleman's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12.9 points.

WHAT IT MEANS:
The "Consistency Differential" equation produces a number, and the size of that number tells people how consistent (on average) players have been in past seasons of fantasy football.
Smaller numbers mean that on average, players have been more consistent in fantasy football than those with larger numbers.
Given the above examples, we can tell that Lamar Miller was, on average, more consistent than either David Johnson or Tevin Coleman in terms of scoring during the 2016 fantasy football season.
However, there are obvious limitations here: Johnson's average floor last season was nearly equivalent to Miller's average ceiling, and thus, Johnson was obviously a much safer pick than Miller.

APPLYING AVERAGES:
Averages, as a concept, are useful in fantasy football to determine more than just consistency: they can help determine opportunities, trends, and effectiveness of many players.
Consider the amount of opportunities the above three running backs got per game last season: to determine "Average Opportunity Ceiling", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball most and average them out.
Likewise, to determine "Average Opportunity Floor", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball least and average them out: the difference will be the "Opportunity Differential".

EXAMPLE:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry or reception in every game last year, so we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
Games with most touches: 41, 32, 30, 29, 27, 25, 25, and 24.
"Average Opportunity Ceiling" last season: ~29.125 touches per game.
Games with least touches: 22, 21, 21, 20, 17, 16, 15, and 8.
"Average Opportunity Floor" last season: ~17.5 touches per game.
David Johnson's "Opportunity Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12 touches per game: that is, the average difference between his "Average Opportunity Ceiling" and "Average Opportunity Floor".

SUMMATION:
This example shows that Johnson, on average, would record a carry or reception between approximately 18 and 29 times per game during the 2016 season.
Similarly to "Consistency Differential", a smaller "Opportunity Differential" is always better: in upcoming articles, I will compare the differentials of running backs and other positions.

Stock Up: Five Wide Receivers

It's about that time in the offseason where fantasy footballers can begin to dissect which skill position players will be great value picks, and which players should be left alone.

Obviously, nothing is set in stone, but as we start to research new coaching staff, quarterback relationships with team members, and off-season workout programs, there are clues that can lead to interesting observations.

With that in mind, let's look at five wide receivers whose stock, in our opinions, has been going up as of late.

Pierre Garcon (San Francisco 49ers)

2016 Stats
Targets: 116
Receptions: 79
Catch Percentage: 68%
Reception Yards: 1,041
Yards Per Catch: 13.2
Receiving Touchdowns: 3
PFF Grade/Rank: 85.8 (8th among qualifying WR's)

If you're scoffing at Garcon making this list, you're not alone.
The 49ers are in rebuilding mode, have big questions at the quarterback position, and generally are not regarded as a fantasy football goldmine.
Also, Garcon will be 31 years old this year (in his 10th season in the league) with a new team, and has only surpassed 1,000 reception yards twice in his career.

Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism: during both the 2012 and 2013 NFL seasons, Kyle Shanahan (the 49ers new head coach) was the Redskins' offensive coordinator, and Garcon was the Redskins WR1.
Though he was injured in 2012 and only played in 10 games (some with injuries), he was on his way to over 1,000 yards, and accomplished that feat in 2013 with his best statistical season to date (184 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards).
Shanahan has also had success with other WR1's who play in his schemes (see: Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Andrew Hawkins, Julio Jones), and given those players' general statistical success when he was their coordinator/coach, hope for a good season from Garcon isn't so farfetched.

Oh, and in case you're curious which quarterbacks started games for him during those seasons, they included Matt Shaub, Sage Rosenfels, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, John Beck, Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Connor Shaw, and Matt Ryan.

It does indeed look like Shanahan can pull off another great statistical season with Garcon, no matter who plays under center.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

2016 Stats
Targets: 74
Receptions: 34
Catch Rate: 46%
Reception Yards: 568
Yards Per Catch: 16.7
Receiving Touchdowns: 6
PFF Grade/Rank: 69.1 (73rd among qualifying WR's)

Nelson is not as recognizable as many other wide receivers, and will likely be overlooked, which is where his potential value comes in.
Last year, while John Brown (the other young and talented Cardinals wideout) regressed from his 1,003 receiving yards in 2015 (in large part due to health issues), Nelson was targeted nearly three times as much and almost doubled his total yards from the previous season.

His catch rate doesn't look good, but when we let the stats speak for themselves, we discover that his yards per reception ranks among the top-10 in the league among qualifying receivers, and his deep-threat status will likely relegate him to a lower catch rate than most wideouts in future seasons as well.
That shouldn't be worrisome when the rest of his teammates are considered: Larry Fitzgerald, the future HOF receiver, had a lower catch rate than his previous season, averaged the lowest YPC of his career, and will turn 34 this year.
John Brown, as previously mentioned, regressed severely last season (from 1,003 receiving yards in 2015 to 517 receiving yards in 2016), and may continue to struggle with health issues.
Jaron Brown isn't much of a breakout candidate either, considering that he has never surpassed 250 yards in a season over his four seasons with the team.

In other words, outside of force-feeding the ball to David Johnson (which they will definitely do), the Cardinals actual receiving options are limited, and Nelson may be the most immediate option to step up and fit the bill.

Cameron Meredith (Chicago Bears)

2016 Stats
Targets: 96
Receptions: 66
Catch Rate: 69%
Reception Yards: 888
Yards Per Catch: 13.5
Receiving Touchdowns: 4
PFF Grade/Rank: 74.5 (53rd among qualifying WR's)

Meredith is a great feel-good story: a college quarterback-turned-wideout, he had a good senior year, but went undrafted anyways.
Then, as a part of the Chicago Bears, he led all players in receiving yards during the 2016 season, despite the quarterback carousel throwing the ball to him (Cutler, Barkley, and Hoyer).

Meredith looks to be something special: he has the size (6'3, 207 lbs) to succeed as a WR1, is only 24 years old, and has a year of success despite playing on one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
His competition this year includes all kinds of big names who need to prove themselves:
-Kevin White, the former Bears' 1st-round pick who has only played in four NFL games.
-Kendall Wright, the former Titans' 1st-round pick who hasn't played a full season since 2013.
-Victor Cruz, the former Giants' star wideout who hasn't played a full season since 2012.
-Markus Wheaton, the former troubled-but-talented Steelers' receiver.
-Rueben Randle, the former talented-but-inconsistent Giants' wideout.

This roster may have gone from one of the least talented in the NFL to one of the most talented, at least at the skill-positions, but it is full of injury concerns and unrealized potential.
Meredith is the only one who has recently been on the up-and-up, while also being one of the few remaining skill position players from last year: it's time to take a flyer on him.

Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints)

2016 Stats
Targets: 122
Receptions: 92
Catch Rate: 75%
Reception Yards: 1,137
Yards Per Catch: 12.4
Receiving Touchdowns: 9
PFF Grade/Rank: 87.1 (6th among qualifying WR's)

Michael Thomas was the Saints' 2nd round draft pick last year, and immediately became their leader in receptions, which means he was a pleasant surprise in fantasy football.

Now, with Brandin Cooks traded to the New England Patriots, the team retains Thomas (as its presumed WR1), Willie Snead (likely as the leading slot receiver), and Brandon Coleman (mostly as a red-zone threat at 6'6 and 225 lbs).
Considering that the Saints didn't draft any wideouts, that will most likely be their three-headed trio of wide receivers, while they utilize Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram at running back.
Coby Fleener is their big name at tight end, and though he is often known more for unfortunate drops, he has had another year in the system, and should play better.

Why is all of this information crucial to Thomas' success this year in fantasy football?
Well, though opposing teams will focus their efforts on stopping the Brees-Thomas connection early and often, there are enough other threats on this team to stop them from double or triple-teaming him during games.
That being said, Drew Brees is a master at connecting with his leading wideouts, and Thomas should be more productive than the majority of players this year.

Terrelle Pryor (Washington Redskins)

2016 Stats
Targets: 140
Receptions: 77
Catch Rate: 55%
Reception Yards: 1,007
Yards Per Catch: 13.1
Receiving Touchdowns: 4
PFF Grade/Rank: 78.6 (tied for 31st among qualifying WR's)

Pryor has had one of the most odd trips through the NFL to get to this point: originally drafted in 2012 in the supplemental draft, he entered the league as a mobile quarterback, before eventually converting to wide receiver and thriving during the 2016 season with the Cleveland Browns.

The Redskins just lost DeSean Jackson, but have multiple playmakers at the skill positions who people may know: Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Brian Quick make up the wide receivers, while guys like Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, and Niles Paul create one of the most threatening groups of tight ends in the league.
Pryor comes in with a few things to his benefit: WR1 size (6'4, 223 lbs), a great season last year (despite playing for a terrible roster and team), natural athletic ability, and experience at multiple positions.

Now he gets Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, who excels at throwing the ball in the intermediate range, a place where Pryor should be able to work the sidelines and out-jump most defenders on the field.

Stock Down: Five Quarterbacks (Whose Situations Are Generally Terrible)

The NFL Draft is done, and teams are celebrating their new team additions.

Some teams struck gold, some teams only struck fool's gold, and some teams struck out entirely.

Today, we're looking at five quarterbacks whose situations are generally terrible for fantasy football purposes this year: wait to draft them till the later rounds, or don't draft them at all.

Question: when is a good time to start planning your next #FantasyFootball draft?
Answer: right now!https://t.co/Bn93OKNDtG#WhatOffseason

— FantasyFootballFFF (@Football_FFF) May 21, 2017

Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)

Notable Skill Position Players:

RB: David Johnson, Andre Ellington

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Chad Williams

TE: Jermaine Gresham

When talking about Palmer, there is a great divide between who he has been as a fantasy football draft choice in past years, and who he is today.

For example, after a fantastic fantasy season in 2015 (5th highest-scoring QB), he fell back down to earth last year (19th highest-scoring QB) due, in part, to his age beginning to catch up to him: this can also be seen in his completion percentage, which was his lowest since 2011 (61%).

We've seen this before with big names (Peyton Manning being the most recent), and with reports coming out of confidence declining in the Cardinal's quarterback situation from inside and outside the organization, it may be best to stay away.

Additionally, for fantasy football purposes, David Johnson will again be the focus of this offense, and since Palmer's arm may be weakening, he likely won't be hitting those deep balls that led to his stellar 2015 fantasy season.

Sam Bradford (Minnesota Vikings)

Notable Skill Position Players:

RB: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Dalvin Cook

WR: Stefon Diggs, Michael Floyd, Adam Thielen, Laquon Treadwell

TE: Kyle Rudolph

Sam Bradford is the epitome of a solid talent who never really reaches his potential, in this case due to a lengthy (and constant) battle with injuries.

Statistically, last season was the best of his career: he set personal bests in passing yards (3,877), led the league in completion percentage (71.6%), had his highest yards-per-attempt to date (7.02 YPA), and achieved a new best Passer Rating (99.3).

Nonetheless, that didn't translate into a good fantasy season (23rd highest-scoring QB), he has only played in a full 16-game season twice in his career (2010, 2012), and the three-headed running back rotation this year will likely take the focus away from the passing game.

Also, as an important additional detail, his o-line isn't looking great: watch the film from last year, and realize there may not be many improvements in that area at all.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

Notable Skill Position Players:

RB: Danny Woodhead, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Lorenzo Taliaferro

WR: Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman

TE: Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta, Maxx Williams

The Ravens are often regarded as an every-year competitor around the NFL, but this isn't looking good at all.

Flacco may have finally broken the 4,000 passing yards mark last year (4,317 yds) and set a new personal best in completion percentage (64.9%), but that can't make up for his pathetic supporting cast on offense.

Think about it: at running back, their leading pass-catching back is an oft-injured 30-something who has missed the majority of both the 2014 and 2016 seasons due to injury.

Their leading 2-down back is a cast-off from the Cleveland Browns (yikes).

The Ravens' top two wide receivers consistently struggle with drops, and no one knows who the other ones are (name one without looking them up, I dare you).

Finally, no one in fantasy trusts Watson or Pitta to stay healthy, and Williams has yet to show signs of life.

Stay away from Flacco in fantasy: this ain't his year.

Barkley/Hoyer/Beathard (San Francisco 49ers)

Notable Skill Position Players:

RB: Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower, Joe Williams, Kapri Bibbs

WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Jeremy Kerley, Bruce Ellington

TE: Vance McDonald

Everyone knows the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, and that's fine: in fact, if you're a fan of the team, you may be quite pleased with the draft results, which were impressive to say the least.

The issue from a fantasy football perspective is that it focused almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball, leaving the offensive shelves bare.

At the wideout position, Garcon is a 30-year-old #2 receiver, Goodwin is a one-trick-pony deep threat speedster, and Kerley/Ellington essentially play the same slot role.

McDonald is a good tight end, but he was not worth his contract extension (5 years/$35 million).

The strength of this offense is their running back stable, so look for the team to almost ignore whoever is under center in order to pound the ball more this season.

Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

Notable Skill Position Players:

RB: Todd Gurley, Lance Dunbar

WR: Tavon Austin, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp

TE: Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee

I feel sorry for Goff: his supporting cast reads like a McDonald's catering menu at a black-tie affair.

Everything about the offense here is hurting: Goff is a good QB, and Gurley is a top-tier talent at RB, but they can't stay upright with the poor O-line in front of them.

Additionally, there are no true threats at the other skill positions: Austin is a punt returner playing wideout, Woods has never passed 700 yards receiving in his career, and Kupp is a rookie in the form of one of this year's third-round picks.

Also, Everett, though he was the Rams' top pick this year, is a rookie joining a recent 4th-round pick to complete this inexperienced tight end stable.

Don't look for much success on offense this year, and Goff should likely not be on any fantasy roster.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Game Preview

The first podcast for Fantasy Football Fanatic is up!
For this post, we bring in life-long Seahawks fan and Seattle-ite Nathan Jacobsen.
He will be giving us his opinion as we look at the upcoming game against the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, October 23rd).
We'll be addressing the following questions in the podcast: enjoy!

1. If both teams were fully healthy right now, how would Arizona's offense stack up against Seattle's defense?

2. And what about the opposite, Seattle's offense versus Arizona's defense?

3. How do you think the injuries to each team will affect gameplans and the final outcome?

4. What's your prediction for this Sunday?

5. Any Fantasy Football thoughts that our readers should take note of?

Podcast can be found HERE.