The Path Forward: the Seahawks & Russell Wilson

Given that I am a Seahawks fan, it is apropos to dive WAY too deep into a path forward for Russell Wilson.

Brian Schottenheimer is gone, and the next offensive coordinator and playcaller will change everything about this team, most likely attempting to refocus the team towards Pete Carroll's main philosophies.

Pete always starts with one of his catchphrases: "it's all about the ball", which roughly translates to (1) create turnovers on defense, (2) prevent turnovers on offense, and (3) play ball control through a physical run game. Other core aspects include a defense that consistently stops the run and limits explosive plays, as well as an offense that creates explosive plays.

Given those items, plus the fan base's desire to "let Russ cook" contrasted with Pete's desire to "run the ball more", it's time to see what would unlock Russell Wilson's best.

Volume

One way to view the "cooking" catchphrase is to increase volume (total amount and opportunity) of passing plays. This year, Russell averaged about 35.88 passing attempts per game, the highest number of his career.

Did Brian "let Russ cook"? By this standard, yes.

Was it Pete's flavor? Not so much, as wee can see from the next graph.

Scoring Efficiency

Pete Carroll LOVES efficiency in football. Throughout Russell's career, he has raved about the quarterback's performance after efficient games, which don't necessarily correspond to high volume passing attacks.

Russell's most efficient year in terms of passing touchdown's per interception thrown was 2019 (6.2 to 1), and it wasn't especially close. That fell to a rate of 3.08 TD's per INT this year, which isn't "bad" by an NFL standard, but is still less than half as efficient (in terms of scoring) as the previous year.

My suspicion is that Pete allowed the "cooking" movement to start the 2020 season due to Russell's incredible efficiency last year, but once he hit a turnover streak in the middle of the season (10 in 4 games), Pete became much more cautious.

One core issue at play is this: though QB is the most important position on any football team, Pete assigns less value to it than other head coaches (not "de-valuing", per se, but rather "de-centralizing"). As can be observed from these next data points, QB play (in Pete's Seahawks teams) has some correlation to points scored, but not necessarily post-season success.

Play-by-Play Analysis

Generally speaking, the top chart is a positive reflection of Russell Wilson and the team when the line is lower (less passing attempts needed to score, which implies more explosive plays, better field position, and more efficiency), while the bottom chart is more positive when the line is higher (more points scored per play).

This year's Seahawks team scored the most points per play in Wilson's tenure as a Seahawk. However, both Super Bowl runs (2013 and 2014) look very different from the following years. During that two-year span, RW threw the ball less, had a worse TD-INT ratio (still above league average), and yet they scored more frequently per pass attempt and per play than most other seasons.

Most common reasons given: the Legion of Boom, Beast Mode, an incredible special teams unit, and, in essence, a team that de-centralized the quarterback position.

Every aspect of those teams was a threat. Any unit could score. Anyone could get a turnover (and yes, PC always philosophically counts "three-and-outs" as turnovers to the credit of the defense). That was Pete's definition of complementary football.

Granted, we could (and should) look at playcalling, offensive schemes, the use of play action, Russell's athleticism, and many other factors that impact the game, but there is a clear takeaway here. Pete wants this team to run HIS version of football again, and he has made that clear in multiple interviews. He believes that he knows the best, most consistent, most reliable way to win football games and establish a winning culture long-term, and he does not believe that the formula involves putting all the eggs in one basket.

Russell is known to be an incredibly humble human being, but this transition is the test: is he willing to "go back" to being the best "game manager" to ever play the game?

Is he willing to sacrifice personal statistical achievement in order to continue building postseason success and a Hall of Fame postseason resume?

Time will tell.

Start & Trade: Week 1

As posted on Twitter, the "Start & Trade" series of articles start this week!

These articles are meant to be immediately helpful: each one will identify at least three (3) players who can easily be obtained in 8, 10, or 12-team fantasy leagues.

Then, we'll tell you why to start those players (for immediate fantasy success/impact).

Finally, we'll recommend some easy trade targets for the next week.

Good luck!

James White (New England Patriots)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB28

Week 1 Matchup: Chiefs, 9.8 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Saints

White is one of five possible Patriots' RB's who could be given opportunities in any given game, and that kind of system is extremely difficult to predict in terms of fantasy football.

However, if the first game of the season (and the entirety of last season) give us any hints, it looks like Gillislee will be the goal-line 'back, replacing Blount's role, and White will continue to be the pass-catching 'back.

Why is that important?
Well, with Julian Edelman out for the year, and with Malcolm Mitchell having been injured early in the season, there are suddenly targets to spread around to other pass-catchers.
Given that many of Brady's WR's now specialize in intermediate or deep-field work (and also given that Brady's downfield arm strength isn't spectacular), White will likely become his favorite dump-off target.

This probably won't send White skyrocketing in value to an RB2, but it may provide him with a nice floor in PPR leagues, and his ceiling will probably be shown against a terrible Saints defense this coming week.

Given this matchup, White is a suggested starter this week.

Take advantage of early-season panic: after he has a big game this week (projecting 11-15 PPR points), see if it's possible to trade for an RB with better long-term value, like Isaiah Crowell of the Browns.

Crowell plays Baltimore's stout defense this week, and his value will likely be at its lowest point of the season: use that opportunity to get him cheap.

Kerwynn Williams (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Running Back
Positional Ranking: RB35

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 8.2 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

David Johnson was the consensus #1 overall pick this year, and is now expected to be out until Christmas.

Johnson's immediate fill-in will be Williams, so he will have some value if you were able to pick him up this week, possibly even functioning as an RB2.

However, Arians has already stated that there may something of a committee approach taken here, and that would mean other RB's may get significant touches (Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson, etc.).

So even though Williams will likely have a great week against the Colts and their putrid defense, he probably won't maintain season-long RB2 value.

Use his projected big game against the Colts, alongside early-season over-thinking, to make a trade for someone like Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers.

McCaffrey had an okay opening game against the 49ers, but will play the Bills this week, and despite their mess of an offense, they do still have a solid defense.

This should push McCaffrey's immediate value down, and may present an opportunity to get a player who will rebound quickly with a matchup the next week against the Saints.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

Position: Wide Receiver
Positional Ranking: WR16

Week 1 Matchup: @ Lions, 15.3 points (per ESPN)

Week 2 Matchup: @ Colts

Nelson had a good fantasy week for his first game of the season with 5 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown, and he represents the Cardinals' only deep threat.

Nelson should have a great week this week: John Brown is out, so he should have many more opportunities, and the Colts defense is just awful, as stated before.
Though he has flashed talent before, he has also been wildly inconsistent in fantasy football and real life, and Palmer's declining accuracy makes this a real issue as a season-long prospect.

Play this matchup to your advantage: with two weeks of top-20 (or possibly higher) fantasy scores, make a package trade for a player who has much more long-term value.

This could include players like T.Y. Hilton, Terrelle Pryor, or Doug Baldwin.

All these players have current situations which could keep them from over-achieving at this point, but they are all projected to improve significantly over the course of the season.

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 2)

In the second part of our running back recap series, we continue to dig deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

Devonta Freeman

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 3.8
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 17.8

Observations:
1. With Freeman, we begin seeing more standard running back trends: he has some off weeks, and often surrounds those with fantastic weeks.
2. Freeman had two weeks where he scored more than 30 fantasy points, and had a higher actual fantasy ceiling than either McCoy or Murray: part of this may be due to age, since both of those RB's are approaching 30, and Freeman just turned 25 this offseason.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 25.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 10.3
Consistency Differential: 15

Observations:
1. Freeman has a higher average fantasy ceiling than Murray, but once again, this could be age-related or scheme-related as opposed to talent-related.
2. Freeman has the lowest average fantasy floor so far, but since it's still above ten points per game, he still provides real promise as an every-game starter.
3. Freeman does have the second-largest "Consistency Differential" so far, implying that he is not the most consistent fantasy 'back week-to-week, but that could lessen as he continues growing in Atlanta's offense.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.625 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 5.875

Observations:
1. One of the most interesting discoveries so far is that Freeman has the smallest "Opportunity Differential"; meaning, he was used more consistently on a per-game basis as compared to any of the top-5 RB's from last season.
2. Nonetheless, Freeman having a small "Opportunity Differential" and a large "Consistency Differential" means that he is the epitome of hot-and-cold, and his visual chart above seems to back this up.

Conclusion:
Devonta Freeman is a solid late-1st or early-2nd round pick in almost every redraft league, and gets a boost to his value in PPR leagues.

Melvin Gordon

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 36.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: 0.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.3

Observations:
1. Gordon is an interesting case: he finished the 2016 season as the #7 overall fantasy RB, but basically missed the last four games of the season with a hip injury.
2. As per usual, games in which Gordon did not touch the ball are not factored into his average fantasy PPG; however, his average goes up to 20.8 fantasy PPG if the week 14 game (where he only scored half a point due to the injury occurring early in the game) is factored out.
3. For comparison's sake, if his week 14 game is factored out, Gordon's average fantasy PPG ranks higher than Freeman, Murray, or McCoy: as it is, it still ranks higher than both Freeman and Murray.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 26.1
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.5
Consistency Differential: 13.6

Observations:
1. Once again, that week 14 game has a large impact on Gordon's averages: his average fantasy floor raises to almost 15 points without it, but his ceiling would only increase to 26.7, which would reduce his overall "Consistency Differential" by nearly two points.
2. Nonetheless, Gordon's "Consistency Differential" is still smaller than Johnson's, McCoy's, and Freeman's: as is the case with these top-tier 'backs, that fact is interesting and revealing, but not necessarily more useful than any other statistic by itself.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 28.7 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 16.7 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 12

Observations:
1. That week 14 game skews everything: if it's removed from these calculations, Gordon's average opportunity floor reaches 19.7, while his ceiling only goes up to 29, reducing his "Opportunity Differential" from 12 to 9.3.
2. Gordon's game with the least carries (and one of the few games where he did not catch a pass) was the first game of the season: he was a major point of the gameplan in every game, as shown by his average opportunity floor reaching nearly 20 touches per game (without week 14 skewing the numbers).

Conclusion:
Gordon actually has one of the highest ceilings of all running backs next season: if he had stayed healthy during the 2016 season, he likely would have been the #4 overall RB, and would have outscored McCoy, Murray, and Freeman in the process.

Mark Ingram

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 31.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: -1.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.1

Observations:
1. Though it doesn't happen often, Ingram was one of the few RB's to have a game where he scored negative points overall: -1.5 points in week 8 versus Seattle.
2. Ingram has the lowest actual fantasy floor so far, and also the lowest average fantasy PPG: he represents the first major divide between running backs who are commonly regarded in RB1 territory, and those regarded as RB2 options.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23
Average Fantasy Floor: 7.3
Consistency Differential: 15.7

Observations:
1. Ingram's average fantasy ceiling isn't terrible, but his average fantasy floor kills his value in comparison to the other running backs so far: when he struggled in a game, it showed in a big way.
2. Interestingly enough, Ingram's "Consistency Differential" is the biggest so far: the difference between his average good game and average bad game (from a fantasy perspective) was huge.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 11 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.4

Observations:
1. Over twenty touches per game is good, but not great: Ingram was not as much of a workhorse as many of the other running backs listed prior.
2. Additionally, though Ingram's "Opportunity Differential" isn't the biggest so far, his average opportunity floor is the lowest to this point: eleven touches per game isn't optimal for a primarily non-pass-catching RB.

Conclusion:
Ingram was a solid high-end RB2 (and sometimes low-end RB1) last season, and finally played a whole season's worth of games: nonetheless, with the addition of Peterson this offseason, it looks more difficult for him to finish in that range again, though a low-end RB2 finish isn't out of sight.

LeGarrette Blount

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 26.4
Actual Fantasy Floor: 6.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 14.6

Observations:
1. Blount has the highest actual fantasy floor so far outside of the top three running backs, partially due to his surprisingly heavy usage as a short-yardage back and as a goal-line threat.
2. Blount's average fantasy PPG is the lowest yet, but I would almost have preferred to have him on my team over Ingram last season, given how consistent he was, and his relatively high floor.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 19.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.9
Consistency Differential: 9.3

Observations:
1. Since Blount only had three games where he scored more than 20 points, his average fantasy ceiling is definitely lower than any other RB so far: he isn't known for his explosive play-making ability.
2. On the other hand, Blount's "Consistency Differential" is the lowest of all running backs so far, meaning that he was good for around 10-20 fantasy points every game, regardless of matchup.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 22.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 15.9 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Consistent usage was Blount's biggest positive last year: his average opportunity floor was higher than both McCoy's floor and Freeman's floor.
2. Though he isn't a pass-catching back, an "Opportunity Differential" of 6.5 is tied with Murray for the smallest so far, meaning that he was used in every game, no matter the opponent.

Conclusion:
Blount is going from lead-back duties in New England to possible lead-back duties in Philadelphia: since they don't have the same caliber offense as the Patriots, he will likely regress outside the top-10 running backs next year.

Jordan Howard

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 30.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.2
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.3

Observations:
1. Given that Howard didn't touch the ball once in week 1, that game is left out of all calculations, including his average fantasy PPG: this helps to explain why his average is higher than Blount's and Ingram's.
2. Howard only had five touches in the week 2 game against Houston when he was techincally still third on Chicago's depth chart, so it might be more fair to average out his fantasy PPG without that week's score considered: if that game is left out, his average fantasy PPG jumps to 16.1, almost a full point higher per game.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 21.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.5
Consistency Differential: 11.7

Observations:
1. Howard didn't end the season with a great average fantasy floor, partially due to games in week 2 and 7 where he was given minimal opportunities.
2. A "Consistency Differential" of 11.7 means Howard was a more consistent fantasy scorer than all top-10 running backs except Elliott, Murray, and Blount.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.2 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 13.3 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 10.9

Observations:
1. From week 8 onwards, Howard was used a minimum of 15 times per game, so the stats are a little skewed here: his average opportunity floor doesn't take into account when he became the full-time starter.
2. Similarly, Howard's "Opportunity Differential" would be much smaller if it was measured from week 8 onwards (or even from week 4 and afterwards) due to his role in the offense growing throughout the beginning of the season.

Conclusion:
Howard projects incredibly well for next season, despite the Bears being in relative chaos compared to other organizations: his stats during the second half of last season tell the story of a potential top-5 fantasy running back.

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 1)

In the first part of our running back recap series, we begin digging deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

NOTE: please refer to the previous article about statistics and fantasy football analysis to discover the background behind some of the following discussions.

David Johnson

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 38.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 7.4
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 25.5

Observations:
1. Johnson only had one game below 10 fantasy points, which is insane: he rewarded those who took a chance on him last season.
2. Any player who has an average fantasy PPG above 20 is considered a sure-fire thing (and he isn't even a quarterback), so you definitely are considering him as a potential #1 overall pick next season.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 32.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 18.6
Consistency Differential: 13.8

Observations:
1. The fact that Johnson's average floor is nearly 20 points is ridiculous, and reveals how much of an outlier that last game was.
2. "Consistency Differential" is useful, but really has no bearing on the highest-scoring player in the game: he may not be the most consistent fantasy player to draft, but who cares? His floor is higher than most RB's ceilings!
3. This reveals an interesting note: "Average Fantasy Floor" is actually the stat that most people look at when they say they want a "consistent" player.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 29.125 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 17.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11.625

Observations:
1. Johnson was a part of every gameplan, and was used in the passing game often.
2. When a low-usage game still involves a player getting more than 15 touches, there is no need to worry about him potentially losing opportunities.

Conclusion:
David Johnson will be the #1 overall draft pick in most redraft leagues this year, with good reason.

Ezekiel Elliott

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 40.9
Actual Fantasy Floor: 10.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 21.7

Observations:
1. Even though Elliott technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. As proof of just how good Johnson is, even compared to a top-tier RB like Elliott, the difference in average fantasy PPG is nearly 4 points, which is huge.
3. Elliott may perform better in PPR leagues this year, however, since (1) Lance Dunbar (the Cowboys' pass-catching 'back) is no longer with the team, and (2) Elliott now has a full year of experience in this system.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 16.1
Consistency Differential: 11.2

Observations:
1. Week 10 was Elliott's week, as he scored 40.9 points, which is more than Johnson scored in any game last season; however, his average ceiling is lower than Johnson's, which means that score was a pretty big outlier.
2. Elliott's "Consistency Differential" is smaller than Johnson's, revealing that on average, Elliott was more a more consistent scorer from game; as mentioned previously, however, this does not mean he should surpass Johnson in draft status.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 27.1 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 20.1 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 7

Observations:
1. Since the Cowboys entire gameplan often revolved around a ball-control offense, it should come as no surprise that Elliott touched the ball 20-27 times per game on average.
2. Elliott will likely continue to see this type of workload going forward, especially given his immensely successful rookie year, so he is a good bet to increase his fantasy point total from this year.

Conclusion:
Elliott will be one of the first three picks in most redraft leagues, unless reported off-field concerns push him down some draft boards.

Le'Veon Bell

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 51.8
Actual Fantasy Floor: 13
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 26.5

Observations:
1. Similar to Elliott, even though Bell technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. Bell is an interesting study: though he was suspended for the first three games of the season and didn't play in the last game, his average PPG is higher than Johnson's, and his actual fantasy floor is higher as well.
3. Some justify taking Bell over Johnson with the first pick, and it is understandable: if he can stay out of issues off the field and stay healthy on it, he has the potential for an even higher ceiling than Johnson has.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 33
Average Fantasy Floor: 19.9
Consistency Differential: 13.1

Observations:
1. Bell scored the most point of any RB in a single game last season with 51.8, where he gained 298 total yards and scored three touchdowns on 42 touches: insane totals all around.
2. Bell has a "Consistency Differential" similar to that of Johnson, but once again, it matters less when you're talking about one of the top-3 overall picks in this year's draft, considering how high his average fantasy floor is (higher than Johnson's).

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 33.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 22.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11

Observations:
1. Part of the reason for Bell having a high average fantasy floor is his high average opportunity floor: in other words, if he generally touches the ball no less than 22 or 23 times a game, he has plenty of opportunities to score, and should be considered a true workhorse.
2. Bell's "Opportunity Differential" can mean that in a WR-heavy game plan (with a lot of Roethlisberger-Brown built in), he will see 11 less touches on average than in an RB-heavy game plan.

Conclusion:
Fantasy pundits often make a case for Bell as a potential #1 overall pick, and as long as he doesn't get hit with any suspensions or injuries, that's a legitimate consideration.

LeSean McCoy

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 1.1
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.9

Observations:
1. Outside of Johnson, Elliott, and Bell, basically every other RB will have two or more "bust" weeks: in McCoy's case, these were weeks 7 and 17, where he scored 1.1. points and 2.6 points, respectively.
2. McCoy also had a week where he didn't touch the ball and scored 0 points, and once again, it isn't factored into his actual fantasy floor or average fantasy PPG.
3. Though McCoy will continue to be considered an RB1 for the upcoming fantasy season, with good reason, there is a large drop-off in terms of last year's statistics from the top three RB's and himself.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.6
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.2
Consistency Differential: 15.4

Observations:
1. "Bust weeks" play into McCoy's "Consistency Differential", which is the biggest one so far, meaning that he is the least consistent week-to-week fantasy running back thus far.
2. "Consistency Differential" is nice because it shows patterns of drop-offs due to age or injury, both of which are slowly creeping up on McCoy: he should have another season or two of RB1 in him, however.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 23.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.1

Observations:
1. McCoy was not used quite as much as the top three RB's last season, but that is reasonable given his age, and the fact that he was injured in a couple games.
2. He was still used almost 15 times on average in low-usage games, so he proved reliable as a workhorse once again: if a running back gets between 15 and 24 touches per game on average, he's worth a 1st or 2nd round pick in general.

Conclusion:
McCoy may not be a top-3 RB next season, but he is a solid option who still averaged between 12 and 28 points per game on average: don't be disappointed if he falls to you near the end of the 1st round in redraft leagues.

DeMarco Murray

Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 28
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.9
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 18.4

Observations:
1. Murray's only true "bust" week was week 17, which is typical for many starting running backs prior to the playoffs.
2. Murray played in every game this season and never carried the ball less than 11 times in a game.
3. Murray may not have the ceiling of the other players, but any running back averaging over 18 PPG is still worth a pretty high pick in redraft leagues.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 13.3
Consistency Differential: 10.1

Observations:
1. Murray has the smallest "Consistency Differential" so far, which makes him the most consistent week-to-week scorer of the top 5 running backs.
2. Notice that Murray's average fantasy floor is actually higher than McCoy's: this is where McCoy could be regarded as ever so slightly more of a high-risk, high-reward player than Murray.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.9 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 18.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Murray actually had a higher average opportunity floor than both Johnson and McCoy last season, meaning that even in a low-usage game, he still was a true bell-cow for the Titans.
2. Additionally, Murray has the smallest "Opportunity Differential" so far, making him (on average) the most consistent top 5 running back in terms of opportunity and fantasy points last season.

Conclusion:
Murray is approaching the dreaded age-30 cliff, and Derrick Henry is a young up-and-comer, but there may not be another offense in the NFL that runs the ball like the Titans: he will continue to be a solid RB1 at least through next season, as long as he stays healthy.

Drafting Consistent Fantasy Options Using Differentials And Averages

"Consistency Differential", as it relates to fantasy football, is a term I've been working on for a few months now: it is not the only one, however.

It, and other terms, will become valuable tools in the upcoming season, and hopefully people in the fantasy community (besides myself) will find them interesting and helpful as well.

This article references fantasy points as scored by ESPN Standard Scoring.

STATISTICS TIME:
One interesting observation comes from comparing a player's top games (half of the games the player participated in, or his "average ceiling") versus his lowest-scoring games (the other half of the games the player participated in, or his "average floor").
The resulting differential shows the average variance between a poor showing and a great game: in other words, it is a "Consistency Differential" in fantasy football.
The smaller the resulting number, the more consistent the player's scores (on average).

EQUATION:
(the top half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) - (the bottom half of a player's fantasy scores)/(half the games the player participated in) = "Consistency Differential"

PROBLEM SOLVED:
When a player plays in an odd number of games, his median score (middle number) is divided in half, and each half of a player's fantasy scores (top and bottom) is divided by another half-game.

EXAMPLE 1:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in every game last year, so we take the average of his lowest scoring eight games and the average of his highest scoring eight games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
In his lowest scoring games, he scored 26.1, 25.1, 23.2, 17.8, 17.3, 17.1, 14.4, and 7.4 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
If we average those scores out, his average floor during the 2016 season was ~18.6 points per game.
Additionally, if we do the same thing for his highest scoring games (38.5, 35, 34.8, 33.6, 33.5, 30.1, 27.1, 26.8), we discover that his average ceiling during the 2016 season was ~32.4 points per game.
Finally, if we subtract his average floor from his average ceiling, we discover that his "Consistency Differential" is approximately 13.8: this represents the average difference between his average floor and average ceiling in games he played in during the 2016 NFL season.
In the end, David Johnson's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is ~13.8 point.

EXAMPLE 2:
Lamar Miller (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 14 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring seven games and the average of his highest scoring seven games to determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 7.
Lowest-scoring games: 13.8, 11.7, 9.7, 8.5, 8.3, 3.4, and 2.8 points (listed from high-to-low scoring fantasy games).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.5 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 32.8, 19.3, 19.2, 16.9, 15.7, 14.7, and 14.3 points.
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~19 points per game.
Lamar Miller's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 10.5 points.

EXAMPLE 3:
Tevin Coleman (2016 season)
He recorded a carry in 13 of 16 possible games, so we take the average of his lowest scoring six games and the average of his highest scoring six games, then use the "Problem Solved" equation to divide the middle game out and determine his average floor and average ceiling from last season: additionally, we will divide resulting numbers by 6.5.
Lowest-scoring games: 14.4, 9.3, 8.6, 6.3, 4.9, and 2.7 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average floor during the 2016 season: ~8.25 points per game.
Highest-scoring games: 29.9, 26.3, 22.5, 19.5, 16.7, and 15.1 points (add half of the median to equation: 7.45).
Average ceiling during the 2016 season: ~21.15 points per game.
Tevin Coleman's "Consistency Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12.9 points.

WHAT IT MEANS:
The "Consistency Differential" equation produces a number, and the size of that number tells people how consistent (on average) players have been in past seasons of fantasy football.
Smaller numbers mean that on average, players have been more consistent in fantasy football than those with larger numbers.
Given the above examples, we can tell that Lamar Miller was, on average, more consistent than either David Johnson or Tevin Coleman in terms of scoring during the 2016 fantasy football season.
However, there are obvious limitations here: Johnson's average floor last season was nearly equivalent to Miller's average ceiling, and thus, Johnson was obviously a much safer pick than Miller.

APPLYING AVERAGES:
Averages, as a concept, are useful in fantasy football to determine more than just consistency: they can help determine opportunities, trends, and effectiveness of many players.
Consider the amount of opportunities the above three running backs got per game last season: to determine "Average Opportunity Ceiling", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball most and average them out.
Likewise, to determine "Average Opportunity Floor", we take the half of the games in which a player touched the ball least and average them out: the difference will be the "Opportunity Differential".

EXAMPLE:
David Johnson (2016 season)
He recorded a carry or reception in every game last year, so we will divide resulting numbers by 8.
Games with most touches: 41, 32, 30, 29, 27, 25, 25, and 24.
"Average Opportunity Ceiling" last season: ~29.125 touches per game.
Games with least touches: 22, 21, 21, 20, 17, 16, 15, and 8.
"Average Opportunity Floor" last season: ~17.5 touches per game.
David Johnson's "Opportunity Differential" for the 2016 season is approximately 12 touches per game: that is, the average difference between his "Average Opportunity Ceiling" and "Average Opportunity Floor".

SUMMATION:
This example shows that Johnson, on average, would record a carry or reception between approximately 18 and 29 times per game during the 2016 season.
Similarly to "Consistency Differential", a smaller "Opportunity Differential" is always better: in upcoming articles, I will compare the differentials of running backs and other positions.

Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017

Here are our current rankings for each offensive position in fantasy football.

These rankings are in a living document, so they will be changing throughout the offseason as new information comes forward.

Nonetheless, check them out and enjoy!

PUBLISHED: 6/4/17

UPDATE: 6/11/17

Fantasy Football Rankings: June 2017 (Google Sheet)

Stock Up: Five Wide Receivers

It's about that time in the offseason where fantasy footballers can begin to dissect which skill position players will be great value picks, and which players should be left alone.

Obviously, nothing is set in stone, but as we start to research new coaching staff, quarterback relationships with team members, and off-season workout programs, there are clues that can lead to interesting observations.

With that in mind, let's look at five wide receivers whose stock, in our opinions, has been going up as of late.

Pierre Garcon (San Francisco 49ers)

2016 Stats
Targets: 116
Receptions: 79
Catch Percentage: 68%
Reception Yards: 1,041
Yards Per Catch: 13.2
Receiving Touchdowns: 3
PFF Grade/Rank: 85.8 (8th among qualifying WR's)

If you're scoffing at Garcon making this list, you're not alone.
The 49ers are in rebuilding mode, have big questions at the quarterback position, and generally are not regarded as a fantasy football goldmine.
Also, Garcon will be 31 years old this year (in his 10th season in the league) with a new team, and has only surpassed 1,000 reception yards twice in his career.

Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism: during both the 2012 and 2013 NFL seasons, Kyle Shanahan (the 49ers new head coach) was the Redskins' offensive coordinator, and Garcon was the Redskins WR1.
Though he was injured in 2012 and only played in 10 games (some with injuries), he was on his way to over 1,000 yards, and accomplished that feat in 2013 with his best statistical season to date (184 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards).
Shanahan has also had success with other WR1's who play in his schemes (see: Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Andrew Hawkins, Julio Jones), and given those players' general statistical success when he was their coordinator/coach, hope for a good season from Garcon isn't so farfetched.

Oh, and in case you're curious which quarterbacks started games for him during those seasons, they included Matt Shaub, Sage Rosenfels, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, John Beck, Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Connor Shaw, and Matt Ryan.

It does indeed look like Shanahan can pull off another great statistical season with Garcon, no matter who plays under center.

J.J. Nelson (Arizona Cardinals)

2016 Stats
Targets: 74
Receptions: 34
Catch Rate: 46%
Reception Yards: 568
Yards Per Catch: 16.7
Receiving Touchdowns: 6
PFF Grade/Rank: 69.1 (73rd among qualifying WR's)

Nelson is not as recognizable as many other wide receivers, and will likely be overlooked, which is where his potential value comes in.
Last year, while John Brown (the other young and talented Cardinals wideout) regressed from his 1,003 receiving yards in 2015 (in large part due to health issues), Nelson was targeted nearly three times as much and almost doubled his total yards from the previous season.

His catch rate doesn't look good, but when we let the stats speak for themselves, we discover that his yards per reception ranks among the top-10 in the league among qualifying receivers, and his deep-threat status will likely relegate him to a lower catch rate than most wideouts in future seasons as well.
That shouldn't be worrisome when the rest of his teammates are considered: Larry Fitzgerald, the future HOF receiver, had a lower catch rate than his previous season, averaged the lowest YPC of his career, and will turn 34 this year.
John Brown, as previously mentioned, regressed severely last season (from 1,003 receiving yards in 2015 to 517 receiving yards in 2016), and may continue to struggle with health issues.
Jaron Brown isn't much of a breakout candidate either, considering that he has never surpassed 250 yards in a season over his four seasons with the team.

In other words, outside of force-feeding the ball to David Johnson (which they will definitely do), the Cardinals actual receiving options are limited, and Nelson may be the most immediate option to step up and fit the bill.

Cameron Meredith (Chicago Bears)

2016 Stats
Targets: 96
Receptions: 66
Catch Rate: 69%
Reception Yards: 888
Yards Per Catch: 13.5
Receiving Touchdowns: 4
PFF Grade/Rank: 74.5 (53rd among qualifying WR's)

Meredith is a great feel-good story: a college quarterback-turned-wideout, he had a good senior year, but went undrafted anyways.
Then, as a part of the Chicago Bears, he led all players in receiving yards during the 2016 season, despite the quarterback carousel throwing the ball to him (Cutler, Barkley, and Hoyer).

Meredith looks to be something special: he has the size (6'3, 207 lbs) to succeed as a WR1, is only 24 years old, and has a year of success despite playing on one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
His competition this year includes all kinds of big names who need to prove themselves:
-Kevin White, the former Bears' 1st-round pick who has only played in four NFL games.
-Kendall Wright, the former Titans' 1st-round pick who hasn't played a full season since 2013.
-Victor Cruz, the former Giants' star wideout who hasn't played a full season since 2012.
-Markus Wheaton, the former troubled-but-talented Steelers' receiver.
-Rueben Randle, the former talented-but-inconsistent Giants' wideout.

This roster may have gone from one of the least talented in the NFL to one of the most talented, at least at the skill-positions, but it is full of injury concerns and unrealized potential.
Meredith is the only one who has recently been on the up-and-up, while also being one of the few remaining skill position players from last year: it's time to take a flyer on him.

Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints)

2016 Stats
Targets: 122
Receptions: 92
Catch Rate: 75%
Reception Yards: 1,137
Yards Per Catch: 12.4
Receiving Touchdowns: 9
PFF Grade/Rank: 87.1 (6th among qualifying WR's)

Michael Thomas was the Saints' 2nd round draft pick last year, and immediately became their leader in receptions, which means he was a pleasant surprise in fantasy football.

Now, with Brandin Cooks traded to the New England Patriots, the team retains Thomas (as its presumed WR1), Willie Snead (likely as the leading slot receiver), and Brandon Coleman (mostly as a red-zone threat at 6'6 and 225 lbs).
Considering that the Saints didn't draft any wideouts, that will most likely be their three-headed trio of wide receivers, while they utilize Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram at running back.
Coby Fleener is their big name at tight end, and though he is often known more for unfortunate drops, he has had another year in the system, and should play better.

Why is all of this information crucial to Thomas' success this year in fantasy football?
Well, though opposing teams will focus their efforts on stopping the Brees-Thomas connection early and often, there are enough other threats on this team to stop them from double or triple-teaming him during games.
That being said, Drew Brees is a master at connecting with his leading wideouts, and Thomas should be more productive than the majority of players this year.

Terrelle Pryor (Washington Redskins)

2016 Stats
Targets: 140
Receptions: 77
Catch Rate: 55%
Reception Yards: 1,007
Yards Per Catch: 13.1
Receiving Touchdowns: 4
PFF Grade/Rank: 78.6 (tied for 31st among qualifying WR's)

Pryor has had one of the most odd trips through the NFL to get to this point: originally drafted in 2012 in the supplemental draft, he entered the league as a mobile quarterback, before eventually converting to wide receiver and thriving during the 2016 season with the Cleveland Browns.

The Redskins just lost DeSean Jackson, but have multiple playmakers at the skill positions who people may know: Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Brian Quick make up the wide receivers, while guys like Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, and Niles Paul create one of the most threatening groups of tight ends in the league.
Pryor comes in with a few things to his benefit: WR1 size (6'4, 223 lbs), a great season last year (despite playing for a terrible roster and team), natural athletic ability, and experience at multiple positions.

Now he gets Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, who excels at throwing the ball in the intermediate range, a place where Pryor should be able to work the sidelines and out-jump most defenders on the field.