Sunday, April 30, 2017

Seahawks 2017 Draft Class

We’ve just experienced three days of pure off-season football fun, and the Seahawks walked away with eleven picks.
ELEVEN PICKS.
Given that, let’s see what is being said about these guys, and see which areas the Hawks improved in the most.

2nd Round (Pick 35) - Malik McDowell, DT/DE

“Has similar physical traits and abilities of Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, but may not share their football character. McDowell lacked production along the interior and could benefit from a move to a defensive end spot in a 4-3 or 3-4 front. McDowell is raw, but when he flashes, it can be blinding. McDowell is an explosive, ascending prospect with All-Pro potential if he grows into his body and takes the necessary coaching.”

“McDowell played both inside at defensive tackle and outside at defensive end for the Spartans. McDowell’s frame and playing style are better suited to him playing an edge defender role at the NFL level. When he is lined up inside at defensive tackle he wins with quickness or by stunting into another gap but McDowell’s length and agility are better served out on the edge. He can also use more of his pass-rush moves when lined up outside including his most consistent long-arm stab pass-rush move and his counters off it. McDowell’s three years of production and positional versatility will intrigue a lot of teams.”

“He’s got a lot of flexibility, he’s played all across the board. He’s been a defensive end, he’s been a nose tackle, he’s been a three technique, which bodes well for us. We see a lot of flexibility in him, he’s a unique player, he’s a very young man, 20 years old, who has a lot of growing. We think he has great upside, he had a fantastic sophomore season that we weighted heavily and we think we have a really special player and we’re really happy to get him. Had a good visit when he came in, all that, and it paid off.”

2nd Round (Pick 58) - Ethan Pocic, C

“Flexible, natural athlete with starting experience all along the LSU offensive line. Scouts say Pocic has the intelligence teams look for from a center and is highly regarded by LSU coaches and teammates in the locker room. Pocic is an excellent "work-up" blocker with the ability to thrive in a running game that operates in space, but his lack of power will produce some extremely challenging matchups for him at times.”

“Pocic does a lot of things well and his ability to make difficult reach blocks make him a fit in any scheme. He’s sound in pass protection and even dabbled at offensive tackle to add some versatility, though he’ll get a shot to stick at center where he looks like one of the best the draft has to offer.”

“We think he’s the most flexible guy in the draft. He started a lot at center but he’s played at guard and he’s played tackle. He’s been a primary player for them in a great conference and just been steady as a rock. Really smart, intelligent, tough guy. Long, tall, he has all the right elements and the background was so versatile that we just thought that was a great opportunity. We really were hoping, there weren’t many offensive linemen in the draft as you’ve noticed that already, and we just thought he could fit into a number of spots and really help us out. We’ll see him at guard and tackle, knowing he can play center.”

3rd Round (Pick 90) - Shaquill Griffin, CB

“Griffin plays the game with an aggressive tilt both in coverage and in his run support. Griffin has good ball skills with a closing burst to challenge throws, but his anticipation is just average and he may not be able to play off of receivers and still be as effective with his ball production. Because he lacks long speed but is an effective tackler, he could be targeted by a defense favoring Cover-2 coverage.”

“Griffin is another player who is likely to see his draft position lowered by what is a deep cornerback class. He ticks all the boxes teams are looking for in an athlete, with the size and raw athleticism that teams will love, but there will be some concern that he struggled as much as he did against Michigan’s Darboh, a draft-eligible receiver. Despite that though, he is coming off an impressive season, and if he can be coached to play inside releases on routes better than he did in 2016, he has a lot to offer teams in the NFL.”

“I think he’s going to be a special teams guy for us, too. You’ll see him on the perimeter, holding up guys and change and be the gunner and all that kind of stuff. Really good motor and the speed, you just can’t deny that it’s really there. He’s a terrific athlete. I see him as an outside guy. We’ll start there and try to transition to our style of stuff. His ability to play the ball, really his ball sense too, we think he’ll be a really good fit.”

3rd Round (Pick 95) - Delano Hill, S

“Hill has the size and physical demeanor to get a quality look from a team as a box safety, but his lack of coverage quickness and ball production won't help his chances. Hill will have to open eyes on special teams and as a lights out, downhill tackler to become an NFL factor.”

“Hill is a unique prospect because all of his NFL Combine measurements are truly representative of his film. He ran an official 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and that solid straight-line speed is apparent from his reel. He measured out at 6-foot-1, 216 pounds, and he uses his size and natural strength well when attacking blockers at the line of scrimmage, as well as playing press coverage in the slot. There were some less-impressive numbers from Indianapolis, as well, and these too didn’t come as a surprise, given his film. He broad-jumped 9-foot-7, and had a short shuttle at 4.27 seconds; both of these figures illustrate his lack of elite change of direction and closing speed. While Hill isn’t a top-end athlete, his ability to tackle consistently and play in the box make him look like a potential NFL starter. Due to the strength of the safety class, he can probably be selected on day three, but teams looking for a strong safety capable of pressing from the slot, as well as playing the run, should have significant interest.”

“We know he can play safety. He’s played a lot and he’s very physical. He’s just right in the right framework of our style that we love to see. Tough and also, he’s played on the slot a lot, so he’s played kind of the nickel position quite a bit, which has shown the ability to cover receivers, which is good. As always, we’ll check our guys out see what the expanse of his play will bring us. We won’t be hesitant to see how he matches up with wide receivers. That’s a good thing for him, but there’s no question he can play safety. We would say strong and free, he looks more like a hitter, he’s really physical. Might be a little more like Kam [Chancellor] style, so we’ll see. He’s done everything their scheme showed, all of that, so it really was a good evaluation for us, we have a lot of hopes for this.”

3rd Round (Pick 102) - Nazair Jones, DT

“Phone booth defender who has good length and the power to fight for control at the point of attack. Jones' strength is his ability to play the run and he could be a physical fit for 3-4 teams looking to add a run defender to their linemen corps. His inability to get the quarterback will cap his draft slotting but he does have pro potential.”

“An effective run defender, Jones will have to carve out a niche for himself on early downs. He has a great feel for the run game and he uses his length well to keep blockers off his frame, and he can do so from multiple positions along the defensive line. He’s built like an old-school 3-4 defensive end though he can line up and have success at 3-, 4-, or 5-technique. The inability to build upon his disruptive pass-rushing grades in 2014 and 2015 leave some concern about his prospects as a three-down player, but at just 22 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and he remains a solid mid-round prospect at this stage.”

“Really fired up about that pick. John did a great job to nail him. He’s a big, if you look back at the guys we’ve had, we’ve had a lot of big three techniques. That‘s because we load up and play that running game in our division in particular. We’re hoping he’s going to fit that mold. You go back, you got some names that you can dig out that are big guys. He’s right there. Line of scrimmage guy, early down player, good technique guy, plays hard. Another young guy just coming into it, has amazing stories, as I’m sure you guys are already picking up on. We’re really excited about him. He really fits that role to kind of fit in the division, play that three technique, big and heavy. He’ll be able to play five technique as well, he’s really long and tall. We’re upping our depth and making it challenging and competitive. I think it was a great pick. I love it.”

3rd Round (Pick 106) - Amara Darboh, WR

“Darboh caught the attention of scouts from very early on in his final season at Michigan. Darboh's outstanding size will have some teams excited, but he needs to run well at the combine in order to be targeted as a "size/speed" prospect. He lacks the quickness and hands to make a living underneath, but has the physical traits and willingness to help as a blocker that could get teams to bite on the second day of the draft (Rounds 2-3). Scheme fit could determine whether he becomes a WR2 or just a guy fighting for snaps off the bench.”

“Darboh is a well-built, possession receiver with experience running the full route tree in a pro-style offense. He finished the 2016 season as one of the highest-graded run-blocking wide receivers in the country, which should allow him to earn immediate playing time on special teams at the NFL level. Darboh has the ability to develop into a starting outside receiver, but his lack of elite athleticism limits his upside.”

“He’s young in football and looks like a professional wide receiver. That’s probably the most amazing thing about his story. He’s got, we see him as a blue grit kid that has overcome a ton in his life. I’ve never met anybody from Iowa that I didn’t like, he was living in Des Moines, Iowa [laughing]. No, he’s really a good route runner, he’s got really good ball skills, he’ll block, he’ll play on teams. He’s one of those kids that just checks off all those boxes and there’s still a lot out there in front of him. He’s a very respectful, very articulate kid who has been through a ton.”

4th Round (Pick 111) - Tedric Thompson, SS

“Thompson in an instinctive cover safety with strong ball skills and a history of production during his time at Colorado. Lacks physicality to operate around the box, but his football intelligence and playmaking skills will get him drafted and could give him a shot at eventually starting.”

“Thompson is a safety that despite lacking top-end athletic measurable, is able to make up for it with great anticipation and awareness. His ball skills are every bit as outstanding as his stat line suggests, which makes him an interesting long-term study in terms of production vs. athletic capacity. With such a loaded class, his disappointing combine numbers are likely to push him to the middle rounds, but there’s a well-roundedness to his game that suggests he could develop into a starter.”

“Phenomenal ball skills.  I think he led the country in passes defensed.  He has great feet, coverage skills, competitor.  He’s got really good range, really good short area quickness.  He’s a really interesting guy; kind of a well-rounded dude. He’s a ball hog. That’s a big deal.  Not just the balls that he’s stolen, but the ones he’s knocked around, and he’s always around the football.  That’s a huge priority for us always.  It has to do with pass rush, too.  That’s why we started where we started with the draft.  That was a big consideration.”

6th Round (Pick 187) - Michael Tyson, FS

“Plays with pretty good football instincts and is competitive challenging the run, but his inconsistencies in deep coverage could cause teams to shy away from using him anywhere but near the line of scrimmage. Tyson has average safety skills and could benefit with more weight work if he has to become a full-time box safety with tight end coverage ability.”

N/A

“Mike Tyson basically fits the profile that we’ve been looking for since we’ve been here as a corner.  He’s a big, tough, aggressive guy that, based on what we’ve seen, has really good coverage skills.  He’s primarily played inside.  He played a lot of Nickel for them last year, he got his hands on a lot of balls.  He has great ball skills and really strong in run support. He played Nickel.  He was a cover guy inside, so you have to have pretty good feet to play inside.  Our hope is that he can be a press corner outside.”

6th Round (Pick 210) - Justin Senior, OL

“Senior has long arms and strong hands, but his lack of bend and inconsistent footwork could cripple his NFL cause if he doesn't improve them. Senior is a right tackle only who has three years of experience against talented, SEC defensive ends but he struggled badly at times in the Senior Bowl. His size could get him drafted, but he has some work to do before ever hitting an NFL field.”

“One of the more athletic tackles in the draft. Senior is going to need a complete re-tool of his pass-blocking technique. He also has a learning curve in understanding an NFL offense. Senior may not be a Day 1 starter but his physical ability will quickly make up for his learning curve and bad fundamentals. His versatility to play in any scheme and make any block will serve him well. His PFF grades were good, not great, at Mississippi State but in that offense and blocking schemes, he was their best player. Senior has a high ceiling and his physical tools and potential will probably lead to him being drafted ahead of most of the other offensive linemen entering the draft.”

“Justin had a much better junior year than he did a senior year.  A great kid, he’s from Montreal.  Very well spoken, very smart. Very, very good pass protector.  He got a little heavy for his senior year, and it’s probably something that we’re going to have to monitor here, when he gets in here, and that’s why he went so late.  He has a lot of tools to work with.  He just needs to decide if he wants to be a player or not. His junior year he played at 295 pounds, and his senior year he played about 315-317, something like that. Then, he continued to climb a little bit. He has a lot of talent, and did not have a great Senior Bowl week, and knows that I think this is a pretty cool wake-up call for him, being selected where he was selected.  Because, his scores with the coaches, the way they do it and everything, his pass protection is phenomenal. We’re going to move him on both sides.  He finished at right, we’re probably going to start him on the left side.”

7th Round (Pick 226) - David Moore, WR

N/A

N/A

“We think that David [Moore] is a stud of a receiver.  He’s 219 pounds and he runs really fast and he’s really physical.  We brought him out here for a visit, and spent a lot of time with him with our docs, and team psychologist and the rest of our staff.  He’s a really cool kid, very tough, very aggressive.  Like Pete said, he’s like 222 pounds, running 4.43.  Maybe 4.38, depends on the launch.”

7th Round (Pick 249) - Chris Carson, RB

“Carson is an immediate winner of the eyeball test, but that hasn't always been true of his running style. His shift from finesse to a more power-based running style fits his size and physical attributes and gives him a better shot of playing on Sundays. Carson is suited to a downhill attack that allows him to be the hammer rather than the nail, but he's unlikely to create for himself with elusiveness or speed. If Carson works out well, he could hear his name called on Day 3.”

N/A

“I was hanging on Chris Carson. He’s a guy that I found looking through the stuff late in the draft, kind of like we’ve done over the years.  I really love this guy because he is so physical and tough the way he ran.  You haven’t heard a whole lot about him, he hasn’t run the ball a lot.  But when he did, he, to me, made a great statement of his style and a style that we really covet. The second half of the season he really came on. I fell in love with how tough he is, and how aggressive he is.  That’s something that kind of falls in that same category, and we didn’t want to miss him.  There was a lot of activity around him, we thought, so we got him with that last shot, there. He’s really aggressive.  He hammers it.  I think you guys are really going to like him when you see him.”

Monday, March 13, 2017

3 Roster Moves That Are Better Than They Appear

It's been a while since our last posting, and not without reason: posting fantasy football articles during the last week of playoffs, the Super Bowl, and right afterwards is often a losing venture.

Most football fanatics took to cheering on a team they didn't normally root for, while also boozing up or losing money on fruitless bets based on how embarrassed Goodell would look when handing the final trophy to the Patriots.

Regardless, the one month of true quiet time in football has passed, and the sheer amount of activity in this year's free agency period requires us to start diving into how this may affect the upcoming fantasy football season.

Let's begin with three moves that have already happened that are better than they appear, and may impact the entire NFL in the upcoming season.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 21
2. Completion Percentage: 59.4%
3. Passing Yards: 4,100
4. Yards Per Pass Attempt: 6.51
5. TD/INT Ratio: 30/15
6. Passer Rating: 84.6

Hot Take(s)

Glennon, a 27 year-old quarterback who played for North Carolina State University, was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and played in thirteen games that year as their starting QB for a majority of the season.
He started a few games once again the next season, and continued his moderate statistical success.
Of the 21 games that he has played in, he only won 6, and one is on his record as a win despite him not accruing any stats at all (vs. Chicago in 2016), which likely means he only went in near the end to hand the ball off or kneel down: if we take that game off his record, he has a 25% win ratio.

Given that, his surrounding cast was not what one would call "fantastic", and his stats were alright.
The one statistic that would scare me as a coach is his YPPA at 6.51 yards per pass attempt, and it was actually lower than that (6.3 YPPA) during the year he started the majority of games: in fact, it was the lowest in the league, meaning he was probably throwing at or behind the line of scrimmage often.


When going through his tape, he looks stronger than the majority of backup QB's in the league, and I would almost say that he looks better than some of the starters in the league last year.
In my opinion, he has untapped potential, and the Bears thought so too, as seen in the Tweets below.

That kind of money isn't as crazy as it may seem: given that the terms essentially make this a fancy "prove-it" deal with low-end starter money (22nd in the league among quarterbacks, less than Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor).
Also, considering how poorly Jay Cutler was regarded in Chicago, it was time for a switch.


So we ask the question: can Glennon succeed where Cutler failed?
Well, the Bears roster is looking better on the offensive side of the ball: running backs such as Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford have had some limited success in the past, and Jordan Howard was a revelation last season.
Where it concerns wide receivers, the Bears are suddenly loaded as well.
Cameron Meredith was fantastic at points last season, often outperforming the now-gone Alshon Jeffery, and former 1st-round pick Kevin White still has yet to find his ceiling.
Additionally, guys like Markus Wheaton, Kendall Wright, Eddie Royal, Rueben Randle, and Joshua Bellamy all have potential to make an impact on this roster, with Wheaton likely taking over #2 receiver duties.
On top of all that, Zach Miller (TE) was starting to find a groove as well, and if he picks up where he left off, that means Glennon will have more weapons than Cutler ever did (with the notable exceptions of 2013 where he had Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte all at their prime).

Give the guy a chance: he has a level of talent, and his surrounding cast now has talent as well.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 57
2. Receptions: 126
3. Reception Yards: 1,451
4. Yards Per Reception: 11.5
5. Touchdowns: 19
6. Explosive plays (20+ yards): 23

Hot Take(s)

Allen, a 27 year-old tight end who played for Clemson, was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL draft by the Indianapolis Colts, and has played in 57 of 80 possible games, including a 2013 season where he only played in a single game due to a hip injury which landed him on injured reserve after the first game of the season.
Allen has struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career, though that didn't stop the Colts from signing him to a large extension (nearly $30 million over four years) in March of 2016.
His PFF (Pro Football Focus) grades have steadily declined over the course of his career, from a high of 86.2 during his rookie year down to a 45.6 in the 2015 season.


Given that, one interesting note is that he has effectively functioned in constant two-TE sets throughout his NFL career, across from Coby Fleener (with the New Orleans Saints as of last year).
Last year (his first without Fleener), Allen's overall grades only increased a little bit, so Fleener was not the sole factor dragging him down.
One more interesting note: during the 2016 season, the Colts discovered Jack Doyle's talents and signed him to a three-year, $19 million contract this offseason.

Now, the Patriots gave up a fourth-round pick and take on Allen's contract, so they obviously think he's worth something: his highest PFF grade last season was in the area of pass catching, so he may become a part of the offense opposite Gronk.

Last season, the Patriots worked with Martellus Bennett across from Gronkowski, and that (obviously) payed dividends for the team.
Opposing teams had to choose who to cover while still being vulnerable across the entire line of scrimmage and middle of the field: the only thing that prevented this duo from becoming one of the best tight end sets in recent memory was Gronk's injury.
Can we expect similar concepts and results with Allen stepping in to Bennett's shoes?
Absolutely.
Expect Bill Belichick to utilize these tight ends in a very similar manner to last year, and as long as Gronk is healthy, expect opposing teams to fail at covering one (or both) every game.
Allen is younger than Bennett by 3 years, and though he also lacks 3 inches in height comparatively, he has always had more potential than he has lived up to.

Expect Belichick to once again utilize multiple TE sets to wreck portions of the league and keep defensive coordinators up at night.


Career Stats
1. Games played: 104
2. Receptions: 309
3. Reception Yards: 4,881
4. Yards Per Reception: 15.8
5. Touchdowns: 30
6. Explosive plays (20+ yards): 96

Hot Take(s)

Britt, a 28 year-old wide receiver who played for Rutgers, was drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 NFL draft by the Tennessee Titans, and has played in 104 of 128 possible games, including a 2011 season where he only played in three total games due to tearing both his MCL and ACL: he was then placed on injured reserve.
Britt finally surpassed the 1,000 yard barrier last season (by 2 yards), and was targeted over 100 times for the first time in his career, pulling in ~61% of his targets.
His PFF (Pro Football Focus) grades have generally been positive with the exceptions of the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and over 8 total season as a pro, he has averaged a 76.5 grade, and is ranked 39th at his position (similar in position to other WRs such as Steve Smith and Mike Wallace).


Britt was Rutgers' first ever first-round pick in the NFL: he originally played for the Titans with players such as Vince Young and Chris Johnson, and continued playing for them from 2009 to 2014.
In 2014, he signed with the Rams on a one-year deal and earned a larger two-year contract by year's end.

His newest contract is with the Browns: 4 years for $32.5 million.
Given the everlasting "the Browns gonna Brown" mentality, it is difficult to see a situation in which he single-handedly remedies the franchise's poor record.

The Browns consistently have unsolvable quarterback issues, and until those issues are resolved, faith in this offense is difficult to come by.
This offseason, the Browns traded for Brock Osweiler, though due to the lack of inspiration that brings, the common thought is that he will be cut or traded once again prior to the beginning of the season.
Rookie Cody Kessler had solid moments mixed in amidst a mess of a season, and may compete to be the starter, though no one will be surprised in the Browns trade for a QB or draft another QB this year.
All of those quarterback issues reflect poorly on the wide receiver position, especially for fantasy football purposes.

Britt is talented and underrated (in my opinion), but he's no Josh Gordon: until the QB carousel in Cleveland finally ends, Britt will be another under-utilized player worth nothing more than a late-round fantasy flier.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: The Top Ten Wide Receivers

The 2016 fantasy football season has finally come to a close.
Congratulations to all the newly-anointed champions out there, you master drafters and waiver-wire addicts.
And if you won the esteemed "toilet bowl trophy", well, you gave it your best shot!
Or gave up halfway through the season.
Either way, you tried, and that counts for something: as they say, "losing in your fantasy football league builds character" or whatever.

Some say "the only thing we learn from history is that we never learn from history": let's be the people who do learn from history, and use it to forge ahead to better fantasy football draft decisions.
This article will consider the top wide receivers from this season: the dramatic (and yet often underrated) playmakers of NFL offenses.

STATISTICS NOTE:
One interesting observation comes from comparing a player's top games (half of the games the player participated in) versus his lowest-scoring games (the other half of the games the player participated in).
The resulting differential shows the average variance between a poor showing and a great game: in other words, it is a "consistency differential" in fantasy football.
The smaller the resulting number, the more consistent the player's scores (on average).

EQUATION: (the top half of a player's fantasy scores)/(number of games) - (the bottom half of a player's fantasy scores)/(number of games) = consistency differential

As an FYI, when a player plays in an odd number of games, his median score (middle number) is divided in half, and each half of a player's fantasy scores (top and bottom) is divided by another half-game.


Jordy Nelson


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 200
2. Reception Yards: 1,257
3. Receptions: 97
4. Reception TD's: 14
5. Targets: 152
6. Fumbles: 1

Hot Take(s)

It's good to be the #1 receiver on a team with Aaron Rodgers.
Tied with Mike Evans as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 12.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) on average.
Despite the dud in week 7 (and the poor showings in week 6 and 17 as well), he generally provided a nice floor, scoring over 12 points in nine of the season's games.
Jordy's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+22+18+17+16+15+15+13)/8 - (12+9+9+9+8+6+4+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (143)/8 - (57)/8
SIMPLIFY: 17.875 - 7.125
RESULT: 10.75
This represents an average difference of 10.75 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Nelson.
Nelson led all wide receivers with 14 receiving touchdowns, and ranked top-10 in receptions, receiving yards, and targets: despite his age, as long as A-Rod is throwing the ball, he is worth a fantasy draft investment.

Mike Evans


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 200
2. Reception Yards: 1,321
3. Receptions: 96
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 175
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

Evans was a target machine this year, and didn't struggle nearly as much as last season with the dreaded "dropsies".
Tied with Jordy Nelson as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided an average of 12.5 fantasy PPG.
His floor was higher than Nelson's, scoring at least 4 fantasy points in all matchups, and he scored 10 or more points in ten of the season's games.
Mike's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+22+21+19+15+15+14+13)/8 - (12+10+7+6+5+5+5+4)/8
SIMPLIFY: (146)/8 - (54)/8
SIMPLIFY: 18.25 - 6.75
RESULT: 11.5
This represents an average difference of 11.5 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Evans, slightly larger than Nelson's.
Evans led all wide receivers with 175(!!!) targets in the passing game, and ranked top-10 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns: he has nowhere to go but up, and will be worth a high pick next season.

Antonio Brown


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 193
2. Reception Yards: 1,284
3. Receptions: 106
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 155
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

One of the top two WR's drafted this past year, Brown returned good value for his draft status.
Ending the year as the 3rd-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 12.9 fantasy PPG on average.
This comes despite not playing in the last game of the season, and he hit double-digit points in ten of the fifteen games he did participate in.
Antonio's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+24+21+18+15+14+14+6.5)/7.5 - (11+11+7+7+6.5+5+3+3)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: (139.5)/7.5 - (53.5)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: 18.6 - 7.13
RESULT: 11.47
This represents an average difference of 11.47 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Brown: his is the first example in which his median score (middle number) is divided in two in order to keep the equation balanced.
Brown is one of two receivers ranked in the top-5 in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and targets: his fantasy draft status should never be in question.

Odell Beckham Jr.


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 188
2. Reception Yards: 1,367
3. Receptions: 101
4. Reception TD's: 10
5. Targets: 169
6. Fumbles: 1

Hot Take(s)

OBJ started off without scoring for the first four games of the season, but blew up after that.
Ending the year as the 4th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 11.8 fantasy PPG on average.
After the bye week in week 8, he found the end zone seven times in nine games and also scored double-digit fantasy weeks in seven of those nine games.
Odell's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (32+21+16+15+15+15+12+12)/8 - (11+10+8+7+4+4+4+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (138)/8 - (50)/8
SIMPLIFY: 17.25 - 6.25
RESULT: 11
This represents an average difference of 11 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Beckham, between Nelson's, Evans', and Brown's.
OBJ is one of two receivers ranked in the top-5 in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and targets: he should continue to be in high demand.

T.Y. Hilton


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 176
2. Reception Yards: 1,448
3. Receptions: 91
4. Reception TD's: 6
5. Targets: 156
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

Hilton was one of the least consistent top-10 wide receivers, and that's saying something.
Ending the year as the 5th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided an average of 11 fantasy PPG.
He scored double-digit points in exactly half of the games this season, which lends credence to his inconsistent fantasy reputation.
Hilton's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (23+23+19+17+15+14+12+10)/8 - (9+8+7+5+4+4+4+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (133)/8 - (43)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.625 - 5.375
RESULT: 11.25
This represents an average difference of 11.25 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Hilton, up there with the spread that Brown and Evans have, but without quite the same ceiling.
Hilton led all receivers in receiving yards, and was targeted the 4th-most of all receivers, which explains his 15.9 yards per catch: a top-10 finish in that category.

Julio Jones


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 170
2. Reception Yards: 1,409
3. Receptions: 83
4. Reception TD's: 6
5. Targets: 129
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

Matt Ryan has played at such a high level this year that he didn't necessarily need his #1 wideout to be overloaded with targets in every game.
Ending the year as the 6th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Jones provided an average of 12.1 fantasy PPG, which is actually higher than OBJ or T.Y. Hilton's average.
He was held out of two games this season, and the Falcons utilized other weapons effectively, yet Julio still had nine games where he scored double-digit fantasy points.
Julio's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (36+19+17+17+16+15+13)/7 - (12+11+6+3+2+2+1)/7
SIMPLIFY: (133)/7 - (37)/7
SIMPLIFY: 19 - 5.286
RESULT: 13.714
This represents an average difference of 13.714 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Jones, the biggest spread of all top receivers: his record-breaking 36-point fantasy game against Carolina in week 4 contributes to the large differential.
Julio still ended up with the 2nd-most yardage of all receivers, ranked 4th in yards per catch, and had a higher catch rate than Jordy Nelson: he may not be perfect, but he returned value.

Davante Adams


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 166
2. Reception Yards: 997
3. Receptions: 75
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 121
6. Fumbles: 1

Hot Take(s)

This was not a name many expected to end up in the top-10 fantasy receivers at the beginning of the season, but Aaron Rodgers was able to put two receivers on that list.
Ending the year as the 7th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Adams provided an average of 10.38 fantasy PPG.
Much of his value came from his 12 touchdowns, and he had nine games where he scored double-digit fantasy points.
Davante's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (25+23+17+16+15+14+11+10)/8 - (10+8+7+4+3+2+1+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (131)/8 - (35)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.375 - 4.375
RESULT: 12
This represents an average difference of 12 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Adams.
This is his third year in the league (with a 2nd-round NFL draft pedigree), and he just set new career highs in receptions, targets, yards, touchdowns, yards per catch, and basically everything else: expect Adams's fantasy draft stock to continue to inflate throughout the off-season.

Brandin Cooks


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 159
2. Reception Yards: 1,173
3. Receptions: 78
4. Reception TD's: 8
5. Targets: 117
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

The Saints' wide receivers trade off big games with each other, so it's no surprise that Cooks had one of the highest ceilings and lowest floors of all wideouts this season.
Ending the year as the 8th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Cooks provided 9.94 fantasy PPG on average.
He only scored double-digit fantasy points in six games, while he had a true dud in week 12 versus the Rams.
Brandin's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (30+27+23+15+11+10+9+7)/8 - (6+6+6+4+3+1+1+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (132)/8 - (27)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.5 - 3.375
RESULT: 13.125
This represents an average difference of 13.125 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Cooks, the 2nd-largest margin of the top receivers.
This is his third year in the league (he was drafted 20th overall by the Saints in 2014), and though he broke the 1,000-yard mark last year, he actually had more yards and a higher average yards-per-catch this season, though his receptions and targets were down: his fantasy draft value may go down due to the rise of Michael Thomas.

Michael Thomas


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 157
2. Reception Yards: 1,137
3. Receptions: 92
4. Reception TD's: 9
5. Targets: 122
6. Fumbles: 2

Hot Take(s)

The second receiver working with Drew Brees on this list, Thomas was pegged as a sleeper at the beginning of the fantasy season and played above his hype level.
Ending the year as the 9th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Thomas provided 10.47 fantasy PPG on average, which is actually higher than his counterpart Cooks.
He scored double-digit fantasy points on eight occasions, but zeroed out in week 10 (versus Denver) and didn't play in week 14 (versus Tampa Bay).
Michael's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (22+21+19+13+13+13+11+5.5)/7.5 - (10+6+6+5.5+5+5+4+0)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: (117.5)/7.5 - (41.5)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: 15.67 - 5.53
RESULT: 10.14
This represents an average difference of 10.14 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Thomas, the lowest differential of the top-10 fantasy wide receivers this year.
Considering this is his first year in the league, the bar has been set pretty high: as long as he avoids the dreaded "sophomore slump", he could reach the top-10 for years to come.

Doug Baldwin


1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 152
2. Reception Yards: 1,128
3. Receptions: 94
4. Reception TD's: 7
5. Targets: 126
6. Fumbles: 0

Hot Take(s)

Baldwin continued building on last year's successful season and worked his way into the top-10 scoring fantasy wideouts this year.
Ending the year as the 10th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Baldwin provided an average of 9.5 fantasy PPG.
He only scored double-digit fantasy points on five occasions, which (admittedly) was disappointing.
Angry Doug's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (23+23+22+15+14+9+8+6)/8 - (6+5+5+4+4+3+3+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (120)/8 - (32)/8
SIMPLIFY: 15 - 4
RESULT: 11
This represents an average difference of 11 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Baldwin, representing production slightly less consistent (on average) than Jordy Nelson and Michael Thomas, but tied with OBJ (and more consistent than the rest of the top-10 fantasy receivers).
Baldwin was one of five wideouts to throw a TD pass this year, and ended the season with the 4th-best catch rate among wide receivers: if the Seahawks' O-line woes are finally addressed this off-season, and if Wilson stays healthy, he could move further into the top-10 fantasy receivers next year.